Confidence in the global economy picking up in the next 12 months is at its highest since the past year.

A report by the World Economic Forum (WEF) indicated that one in three experts from business, government and civil society organisations expressed confidence in the state of the economy over the next 12 months.

This is up from 13 per cent of respondents in the previous quarter.

However, this does not mean that optimism is returning to respondents' minds, said WEF managing director Lee Howell.

"This quarter's survey results do not signal a 'cautious optimism' returning, but merely caution as the global economy remains fragile.

"The perception that a significant geopolitical shock is possible in the next 12 months is a clear signal in this regard, given the interplay of global economics and geopolitics," he said.

Fears of major economic disruptions also decreased this quarter; 46 per cent of respondents were less concerned about such disruptions compared to 63 per cent in the previous quarter.

The rest of the experts surveyed were not, or not at all, confident in the state of the global economy.

However, this is an increase from the 61 per cent who expressed the same sentiments last quarter.

The remaining third took a neutral stance.

The survey also found that the perceived likelihood of major geopolitical disruptions remains high.

57 per cent of respondents still think it is likely or very likely in the next 12 months, while only 15 per cent are not worried about it.

Business experts are especially concerned, with 65 per cent saying a geopolitical disruption is likely or very likely, compared with only 39 per cent of respondents from government.

However, confidence in the ability of political leadership to deal with geopolitical tensions increased. The percentage of respondents who expressed confidence in the state of global governance increased from 15 per cent to 21 per cent, while that for global cooperation increased from 23 per cent to 30 per cent.

The fourth quarterly Global Confidence Index polled 273 experts from business, government, international organizations and academia who are from the WEF's Network of Global Agenda Councils, which includes policy-makers, business leaders and academics.

paullim@sph.com.sg