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Friday, Apr 20, 2012
Reuters
Muted growth forecast for Asia

Asia's economic growth probably troughed in the first quarter but a bounce-back may be muted, a Reuters poll showed.

Although the fear factor has faded over Europe's debt crisis and a slowing United States economy, both will still be a drag on growth rates in the region.

Respondents in a quarterly survey of over 250 economists refrained from slashing growth forecasts for the first time in a year, a sign that the outlook for Asia is certainly upbeat even though it may be too early to celebrate.

"Confidence is slowly crawling back in," said Mr Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC.

"We have seen in China much more aggressive action been taken to support growth; China clearly remains the regional engine, plus the financial risks we saw emanating from Europe last year have also started to dissipate."

While powerhouses China and India will not have the double-digit growth seen before the global financial crisis, both economies will rebound next year, supported by policy easing, robust domestic demand, reviving exports and a stabilisation in the long-drawn European debt crisis.

"The first quarter has seen the bottom in growth, things are stabilising, and will possibly re-accelerate over the next few quarters, with the region likely to hit its full stride in the second half of the year," added Mr Neumann.

Expectations for growth in China have not budged since the last poll in January, an encouraging sign after economists consistently downgraded their outlook in the last three polls.

Asia's largest economy is expected to grow at an annual 8.4 per cent this year and 8.6 per cent next year.

China had reported its slowest quarterly growth since the tail-end of the financial crisis in the March quarter and the poll shows that was probably the trough and the economy will rebound in the coming quarters.

For India, analysts expect growth to touch 6.8 per cent this fiscal year and 7.1 per cent in the next.

This was slightly lower than the 7.0 per cent and 7.3 per cent estimates in the January poll.

The survey, which covers 13 economies across Asia, showed that analysts trimmed their growth expectations for Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.

On the other hand, the outlook for Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand had brightened, when compared to the last survey.

Growth for all economies polled is expected to be faster next year than this year, the sole exception being Thailand.

Asian economies will remain on track for growth and could even pick up pace later this year, as long as global conditions do not deteriorate rapidly.

"The past 21/2 years have taught us that Asia does not need strong growth in the G-3 to grow fast itself. All Asia needs is the absence of negative growth and it will do just fine," said Mr David Carbon at DBS in Singapore.

He added that domestic demand had kept growth alive even when exports petered out last year, so if conditions in Europe improved, the region will see rapid growth.

 
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