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It's more fun in turbulent times for 14-year veteran
Wed, Aug 12, 2009
The Business Times

IN turbulent financial times such as these, an analyst's job is all the more fun, says Lim Keng Hock, an analyst with Credit Suisse.

And times like these are not unfamiliar to Mr Lim, who has seen four recessions now over the course of his 14-year stock analyst career.

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His stock recommendations on Jurong Tech and Datacraft Asia were highlighted by StarMine as calls which led to his fourth overall placing among Singapore's stock pickers.

'It's a discipline,' Mr Lim says of his work. 'To look at a business relative to the industry it's in: How is it positioned? Do they have what it takes to be a survivor?'

'Of course, survivors come in many different forms - some have savvy management, some have a strong product, strong positioning, strong R&D, and so on. I think 14 years of experience has definitely helped me to assess these factors,' Mr Lim said.

'And, if we take the view that, yes, it (the business) is a long-term player, then the next question is, can it generate enough cashflow to reward shareholders, or sufficient growth to drive its share price?'

His underperform on Jurong Tech from Jan 29 until the end of the year pre-empted the stock's 78 per cent fall from 36 cents to just eight cents.

'In both cases, we looked at two key things. One, the viability of the business model, whether the company can survive, and two, its cashflow.'

'In the case of Jurong Tech, its business model as a contract manufacturer was a challenging one to begin with, and with the way it was burning its cash, its weak balance sheet, it was clear that it was only a matter of time before it would run into insolvency problems.'

The company was put under judicial management in February.

The other profitable call StarMine noted Mr Lim for was the profitable 'outperform' on Datacraft Asia.

Over seven months last year, the stock gained 10 per cent in absolute terms, and outperformed its industry peers by 99 per cent.

Mr Lim said that with Datacraft, it was the story of a company that had been around for awhile with a sound business model, but whose full potential had not been realised by the market yet - hence his positive call.

He thinks that the financial crisis makes it easier to separate the good companies from the bad companies and assess fundamentals, but not necessarily to make the right call on a stock.

'The market meltdown means that a whole slew of behavioural and other factors come into play - how people react to the market, sentiment, liquidity flow, macroeconomic factors - so that calling stocks' direction and share price becomes a lot more difficult,' said Mr Lim.

This article was first published in The Business Times.

 

 
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