In October, the education ministry said that more than one in three of Taiwan's 164 colleges are likely to be forced to close by 2021 due to a shortage of students. Much more serious, the island will eventually not have enough people in the labor force to support a growing number of elderly.

Current forecasts are that in 2051, more than one in three Taiwanese will be 65 years or older, up from one in 10 now.

Importing labor from mainland China on a massive scale would seem a solution, given the linguistic and cultural similarities, but it is not politically feasible, analysts warned.

Perhaps a majority of people in Taiwan are concerned about being devoured by a rapidly growing Chinese giant, and letting large armies of workers on to the island would do nothing to reassure them.

This means that if Taiwan wants to maintain its population, it has to increase its fertility rate, analysts say.

"The government has to take action now," said Haub.

However, so far the government has shown little inclination to introduce effective measures, according to Chen Yu-hua, a demographer at National Taiwan University. "It seems the Taiwan government does not have any strong political will to do anything about it. It doesn't provide any incentive for the people," she said.

There is also no particular pressure yet from public opinion to act, as the general understanding of the issues remains low, according to Chen.

With a population density ranked as 15th in the world, many Taiwanese would welcome a drop in numbers, but the key issue is how to achieve this, she said.

"You need to have proportional decrease for each age group, not just a decrease among the young," Chen said, referring to the problem of a thinning work force supporting millions of retirees. But "proportional decrease" is not practically possible - a government cannot cut the number of those already born - and therefore Taiwan has no other choice but a gradual reduction, not the steep one seen now, she said.

"Many people think a decrease of the population is good for Taiwan. It will help the environment," she said.

"But we really need to be concerned about the fertility issue. If we want to rely on ourselves, we need to encourage Taiwanese people to produce a new generation."

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