THE silly season starts in Istanbul.

If there was any doubt that this time of the year marks the start of the "silly season" in Formula One, it was swiftly allayed on the eve of the Turkish Grand Prix. Then, Lewis Hamilton flew like Superman onto the stage in an Istanbul theatre.

One can only hope that Hamilton will get better reviews for his driving this weekend than for his theatrical abilities.

The stunt, created by McLaren sponsor Vodafone, even forced Lewis to ask British journalists: "That was a bit weird. What did you guys think?"

He got some very straight answers!

The true mark of the "silly season" is the start of speculation across the paddock on who will be driving for different teams next season.

Ferrari, who have the best car on the grid and are favourites for another win this weekend, are, unsurprisingly, at the centre of the rumours.

While Felipe Massa has done a solid job at the Scuderia, his contract comes to an end at the close of this season.

Despite winning in Bahrain and finishing second to team-mate Raikkonen in Spain, there are some insiders who speculate that the Brazilian's erratic start to the season has set Ferrari's management to consider his replacement. He had spun out of contention in the first two races.

No doubt, Massa will close these rumours down with an emphatic third successive win at the Istanbul Otodrom this weekend. But, if he does not, who would Ferrari pick?

Certainly Fernando Alonso has dropped the heaviest possible hints that he would like to be considered. The trouble for the Spaniard is, after his fall-out at McLaren, the Ferrari management would rather have all their teeth pulled out than introduce similar instability in their team.

Ferrari already have a proven World Champion driver in Kimi Raikkonen, who fits perfectly in the team. They simply don't need the trouble of infighting between two world champion-sized egos.

If Ferrari were to seek a replacement for Massa, all the signs point to Robert Kubica of BMW. He is the kind of natural, seat-of-the-pants, racer that Ferrari traditionally love.

Kubica, though, is very loyal to the BMW team that gave him his big break in Formula One. But, if any driver on the grid is asked to join Ferrari, it will be hard to refuse such an offer.

Were Kubica to leave BMW, the speculation would then be: Who to replace him there?

I think you would see Sebastian Vettel swiftly lured from Toro Rosso. Anthony Davidson, who is said to have turned down a testing role at BMW in favour of racing with the beleaguered Super Aguri team (a wrong move in hindsight), might be in the frame too.

If Massa were to be on the transfer market for next year, he could replace fellow Brazilian Rubens Barrichello at the steadily improving Honda team.

Massa worked well with former Ferrari technical boss Ross Brawn, who is now race director at Honda. I suspect he wouldn't hurt sales of Honda cars in Latin America either.

Of course, all this is mere speculation. What we do know is that the Turkish Grand Prix is set to be another case of "chase the Ferraris".

The fast Istanbul track requires much less aerodynamic downforce than the previous race in Spain. That adds to the demands of the swooping series of curves in the first half of the lap, culminating in the awesome Turn 8.

This is perhaps the toughest corner of any race track in the world. It is a continuous left-hand curve, where the drivers sustain 4.5G as their cars accelerate between 270 and 310kmh.

To add to the drama, it has a deceptively bumpy surface. In the words of Raikkonen "It will bounce you off the circuit if you don?t get the line exactly right or accelerate at the wrong moment."

The long corner also punishes the tyres, making the correct judgment of tyre wear and sensitive driving vital. Ferrari and Massa have managed that absolutely perfectly for the past two years, as did Raikkonen in 2005 when he triumphed for McLaren.

Last year, McLaren demonstrated the penalties of overstressing the tyres when Hamilton dropped from third place to a distant fifth after a tortured front tyre blew out.

Hamilton would have learnt from that and will lead the pursuit of the scarlet cars.

Watch out, too, for Kubica. The Pole is always a star when driving cars with a lower-downforce set-up. He might just spring a surprise this weekend.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on May 10, 2008.