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LONG-range aircraft like the Airbus 380, which has brought much publicity to Singapore, could affect its status as an air hub negatively.
The superjumbo, as well as other new planes such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, can fly long distances and could bypass Changi Airport, said the Pacific Asia Travel Association (Pata) at a tourism forecast briefing last week.
The threat of such aircraft to Singapore has been brought up several times over the past few years, amid rising competition among airports.
Singapore Airlines was the first airline in the world to fly the coveted A380 in October last year.
Professor Lindsay Turner from Australia's University of Victoria, told reporters that Singapore would have to seriously examine how it can retain its hub status in face of such competition.
He is one of the two authors of Pata's tourism forecasts for 2008 to 2010.
Prof Turner also added that places like Vietnam are growing in attractiveness because of its low prices, and Dubai offers cheaper fuel.
He said: "Singapore could lose its growth in hub status, relative to other places. There could be new hubs that happen to be at the right place for these aircraft.
"But I don't believe there will be declining growth; it could slow down relative growth."
Prof Turner added, however, that airlines could well prefer Changi Airport, with its track record for efficiency and safety.
"It's not necessarily the case that Singapore is doing the wrong thing at all. It's doing the right thing, it just needs to do more of it," he said.
Changi's growth, however, did slow down last year.
Passenger traffic hit an all-time high of 36.7 million, but the airport recorded slower growth in this area. Last year's tally marked a 4.8 per cent increase over 2006, the lowest increase in three years.
When contacted, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) acknowledged that development in aircraft technology, especially with the emergence of longer-range aircraft, would result in some services bypassing Singapore.
For example, Emirates can now fly directly from Dubai to Sydney, without making a stopover in Singapore.
Added a CAAS spokesman: "At the same time, it is an opportunity as it allows airlines to fly directly from Singapore to key points in North America, like Los Angeles and New York, thereby enhancing our position as an air hub."
The Singapore Tourism Board (STB) added that it is important to ensure Singapore remains an attractive, viable and essential destination not only for tourism but also for business, trade, cultural exchanges, sports, the Meetings, Incentive Travel, Conventions and Exhibitions (Mice) industry, education, and healthcare.
The tourism outlook for Singapore remains bright, said Pata, which predicts 12 million visitor arrivals here by 2010.
marcelp@sph.com.sg
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