Why are Tibetans up in arms?

How might all this end? China Correspondent Sim Chi Yin spoke to scholars on Tibet and China for some answers.

Why are relations between the Chinese and Tibetans so tense?

Historical and ethnic tension: Many Tibetans feel that their once-independent kingdom was invaded by the Chinese in 1950, and that their culture, religion, language and lifestyle are being eroded.

They also resent the influx of Han Chinese settlers who have set up businesses and shops in the remote and inhospitable land since the 1980s.

A US$4.2 billion (S$5.8 billion) railway extension linking Lhasa to booming inland and coastal Chinese cities from mid-2006 was seen as a symbol of Chinese control by some Tibetans.

'The authorities see the increase in Chinese population as a boost for the economy but the Tibetans view it as a second invasion,' says Professor Tsering Shakya, a Tibet expert at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

Economic discontent: The Chinese government is eager to boost economic development in Tibet, one of the poorest areas in China.

Beijing believes that economic prosperity will not only lift living standards for all, but also dilute ethnic tensions and defuse local resentment against Chinese rule.

But analysts say growth has instead fuelled discontent.

Tibet's economy doubled in size between 2000 and 2005, but the people who benefited most are the Chinese settlers and a small section of middle class Tibetans, says Dr Andrew Fischer, a development economist at the London School of Economics.

Tibet's urban-rural income gap in 2005 was double the national average, he notes. More tellingly, income disparities within urban areas have been rising sharply since the late 1990s, when they were already among the country's highest.

Political demands: Some analysts say the tension boils down to one main reason -the Tibetans' widespread, but pent-up demand for self-rule.

This is clear from the fact that the recent riots took place not just in Lhasa, but also in Tibetan towns in nearby provinces such as Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan.

Those involved in the protests were not just monks and urban unemployed youths, but also students and nomads in rural areas. They made their demands clear by unfurling the banned Tibetan national flag.

Recent agitation: The above grievances have led to protests in the late 1980s and early 1990s, including the March 1989 riots which resulted in the declaration of martial law in Tibet.

Things were brought to a boiling point again this year due to the imposition of stricter restrictions on the practice of religion and intensified denunciations of the Dalai Lama.

Political tension within Lhasa had also been heightened in the past two years by the appointment of a hardline Chinese Communist Party boss, Mr Zhang Qingli.

'This was waiting to happen, though the climate of fear is so strong in Lhasa,' says Professor Robert Barnett, director of modern Tibetan studies at Columbia University.

'But once they (Tibetans) did dare (to strike out), the flood gates just opened.'

Why did the latest protests turn violent?

The Lhasa riots last Friday followed days of marches by monks in Lhasa to mark the 49th anniversary of a failed uprising against Chinese rule on March 10.

While analysts who track Tibet closely feel they could have 'seen it coming' because of Lhasa residents' protracted, pent-up frustration over Chinese rule, it is difficult to know for sure right now if the riots were spontaneous or instigated somehow.

There has not been an independently verified account or explanation as to why the monks and local Tibetans got so enraged that they began torching buildings and cars.

Observers say the violence may have been sparked by rumours that some monks, who took part in the marches, had been killed or tortured.

Beijing insisted, however, that the riots were part of a premeditated plot by the Dalai Lama and his associates.
Another unanswered question: Why was the rioting allowed to continue in the first place?

Prof Barnett says it seems the police kept demonstrations under control up to Friday morning but did not step in initially when young Tibetans then took their grievances to the streets.

This 'allowed the anti-police riot to turn into an anti-Chinese one', he adds.

Technology also played a part in spreading the protest.

With news and images of the Lhasa riots spreading rapidly through blogs, websites, and Tibetan language radio broadcasts, demonstrations spread quickly to three of the four ethnic Tibetan areas in nearby Chinese provinces which were historically part of Tibet.

What do Tibetans want?

'Genuine autonomy': This is what the Dalai Lama has been asking for since the 1990s, after backing down from a call for independence.

He wants Tibetans to be in control of all aspects of their own affairs apart from foreign and military policies.
He says this 'autonomy' should apply to all Tibetan-inhabited areas within China. More recently, he has asked for just 'cultural rights'.

Scholars note that these demands are not much more than those provided for in the 1951 agreement signed by Mao Zedong promising to respect the Dalai Lama and give Tibet unique status.

Return from exile: Ordinary Tibetans want the Dalai Lama to be allowed to return to Tibet. He fled to India after the 1959 failed uprising.

What is China's position?

Beijing maintains that Tibet -like the other restive regions of Taiwan and Xinjiang -has always been part of China and cannot be allowed to separate. It says the Dalai Lama and his 'clique' are 'splittists' and are responsible for the latest unrest.

Beijing believes that the Dalai Lama's notion of 'autonomy' amounts to independence, and his call for peaceful dialogue is 'nothing but lies'.

The Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy rests in large part on the platform of national unification. Tibet, which makes up one-eighth of China's land area, is also its buffer against strategic rival India.

Between 2000 and 2006, Beijing and representatives of the Dalai Lama held six rounds of talks, making little progress.

Is the current Tibetan unrest deliberately timed to grab attention ahead of the Olympics?

In a way. But the spontaneous eruption of anti-Chinese anger inside Tibet has little direct connection with the Olympics-themed campaigns launched by lobby groups this year, say scholars.

Pro-independence groups abroad - run by exiles and Western supporters - oppose China's hosting of the Games and call for a boycott.

Activists unfurled 'Free Tibet' banners on Mount Everest and at the Great Wall last year. The Dalai Lama, however, does not support a Games boycott.

Given the growing frustration within Tibet, analysts say there may be a sense among some groups that 'it's now or never', since the world's eyes are on Beijing this year.

Says China expert Richard Baum of the University of California, Los Angeles: 'It's almost as though the Beijing authorities had erected a brightly-illuminated proscenium stage and then cautioned angry subalterns not to display their unhappiness.

'Nature abhors a well-lit, empty stage.'

What are the future implications?

For China and the Olympics: The unrest in Tibet is deeply embarrassing for Beijing, which is already under fire for air pollution worries, its role in the Darfur crisis, and its human rights record.

But while Beijing is faced with calls for restraint from around the world, that is not enough to stop it from clamping down with an iron fist.

Prof Baum says: 'I think the regime would prefer - if only barely - a global PR disaster to a shattering of Chinese rule in Tibet, or Taiwan or Xinjiang.'

There is a big question mark over the Olympics torch relay, which is scheduled to pass through Mount Everest and Lhasa in mid-June. Olympics officials in Beijing insist their plans are on track.

'The Chinese are so proud of their relay. They wouldn't want it to be derailed,' says Professor Yang Dali of the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute.

Ordinary Tibetans: They will be hit hard and pressured to inform on one another as the authorities crack down, deepening the climate of fear in Lhasa. Tibetan areas in nearby provinces may also witness heightened security and tension going forward.

Dalai Lama and the Tibetan rights movement: With the Dalai Lama saying he feels 'helpless' about the spiralling protests and as more younger exiles reject his non-violent ways, the rights movement might become more radical.

Longer term China-Tibet ties: Things could still go either way, but do not look too hopeful right now, experts say.

With all its harsh words in recent days, Beijing might break off all contact with the Dalai Lama.

But sources say some within Beijing are now urging top leaders to eat humble pie and reach out to the Dalai Lama to quell Tibetans' anger.

That will require a total U-turn from Beijing, since, as Prof Barnett puts it: 'The person who can sort this (unrest) all out is the person they've been insulting for so many years.'

This article was first published in The Straits Times on March 19, 2008

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