(Spain win 41 per cent, Draw 32 per cent, Italy win 27 per cent)

FROM a computer simulator's point of view, Euro08 has gone pretty smoothly.

On the whole, the better team has beaten the less good team.

So, for instance, many pundits fancied Portugal to beat Germany, but we didn't.

And we urged pundits not to panic because they saw an on-form Portugal side while Germany struggled to get going.

Now the same principle must apply.

Italy are basically thought to be little toughies. They may not be any good but they persist, goes the line.

They are just going to outwit and outlast Spain, even though the Spaniards are superior.

Wrong.

Computer simulations don't make qualitative judgments. They simply use numbers.

If Italy achieved good results despite their quality, we would mark them as the better side.

They are marked up as not the better side precisely because they don't get better results.

The gulf between these two sides is almost exactly the same as that between the Germans and the Portuguese.

And the same as that between Barcelona and Arsenal.

Yet a team with a 42.5 per cent chance of progressing will feel they have a huge chance.

This will therefore be a stiff test for Spain.

The main reason Spain might have difficulty is that their weakest suit is attack, strangely enough, while Italy's strength is defence.

A good deal will depend on who scores first therefore.

Predictor Punt: 1-0