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The long US presidential race
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Wed, Jan 02, 2008
The Straits Times
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ON | CE upon a time, the United States presidential primary season did not begin until March. Weeks would separate the Iowa caucus - a straw poll, really, which few took seriously - from the New Hampshire primary. The presidential election season would not last for more than six to nine months, from March to November. And party bosses, not voters, would choose the presidential nominees - producing, among others, an Abraham Lincoln and a Woodrow Wilson, a Franklin Roosevelt and a Dwight Eisenhower. This year, the season begins this week, with the Iowa caucus on Thursday. The New Hampshire primary will follow five days later, on Jan 8. The final two candidates would have been at it for two years by the time they stagger into November. And, ahem, the next president is not likely to be a Lincoln or a Roosevelt despite this enormous expense of time and money.
Conventional wisdom a few months ago had it that Iowa was likely to be decisive, given the tight schedule of primaries this year. The winner in Iowa was supposed to thunder through New Hampshire five days later and on to 'Super Tuesday' on Feb 5, when 23 states, including California and New York, are due to hold their primaries and caucuses. Anybody who fails to do well in Iowa, the conventional wisdom went, will not have time to make much of a mark in New Hampshire, and will be toast by Feb 5. The US would then have a 10-month long, coastto-coast, head-to-head contest between the two major-party candidates - the mother of all presidential elections.
Thankfully - or perhaps, unfortunately - that is not likely to happen. The opinion polls, which are never accurate in the complicated Iowa caucuses, suggest the three major candidates for the Democratic nomination - Mrs Hillary Clinton, Mr Barack Obama and Mr John Edwards - are virtually tied. And on the Republican side, only two candidates - Mr Mitt Romney and Mr Mike Huckabee - are in serious contention in Iowa, with the others, including the front runner, Mr Rudy Giuliani, preferring to wait for New Hampshire . One wonders: If after a year of incessant campaigning, Iowans are no nearer a decision than they were a year ago, would they have missed anything if the candidates had not begun politicking so early?
Perhaps a washout Iowa caucus will sharpen the debate. Thus far, the Democratic contest has focused on the respective merits of 'experience' (Mrs Clinton) and 'change' (Mr Obama), as though they were mutually exclusive; and the Republican one on who is the authentic heir of Ronald Reagan, an icon who left office 20 years ago in a different era. Perhaps...but don't hold your breath!
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