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CHINA is taking another step in the measured process towards universal suffrage for Hong Kong in indicating last week that the territory could elect directly its Chief Executive in 2017. This would possibly be followed in 2020 by Legislative Council direct elections. Pro-democracy activists wanting earlier deadlines would be disappointed. Their expectations had remained high, perhaps too high, after their pro-democracy champion Anson Chan won a Legco seat in a by-election. But it would be a mistake to count the delay as a setback. In the five-millennium sweep of Chinese recorded history, the wait is barely a nano split-second. Beijing waited 150 years to reclaim the territory after it came under British administration following Qing China's defeat in the Opium Wars. The 10 trouble-free years following Hong Kong's return to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 have shown the Beijing leadership to have been right in entrenching a patron-client governance system. This had existed for well over a century under the British, in case the pro-democracy brigade chooses to forget.
It would be unrealistic to expect China, after its modernising experience of the last 25 years, to shift from its economic preoccupation that has brought stunning results, to precipitate political reform that carries risks. Economic pragmatism has made a necessity of a political framework made up of business and professional representation. This has served Hong Kong well, although even Beijing would not expect it to be acceptable to Hong Kongers if it lasted longer than is necessary. In such an arrangement, personal relationships and mutual respect denoted by guanxi and ren ch'ing respectively play as important a part as one-person one-vote does in a democratic system.
Political lobbies and special interests in Hong Kong will continue to push for universal suffrage. But bearing in mind the Chinese experience, not only at Tiananmen in 1989 but also in regard to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, the pace of change is for Beijing to decide. The mainland political scene itself is undergoing change. China has made its one-country two-systems approach work in Hong Kong by ensuring effective political control and succession while keeping its hands off routine local governance. Hong Kong is doing well because China has done well. Indeed, policy choices Beijing made over people movement and market access got Hong Kong out of its rut after the financial and Sars crises. That is a truism Hongkongers can take to the bank, as Chief Executive Donald Tsang continues to sort out with Beijing the 'how' as well as the 'when' of constitutional reform.
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