Violence, seldom absent from Pakistani polls, has already caused unprecedented election-related mayhem, with terrorists, mostly suicide bombers, killing more than 500 people over the past seven weeks.

At centre stage in this drama is President Pervez Musharraf, 64, the army general who doffed his uniform last November. He has been the nation's strongman since 1999 when, as army chief, he seized power from then prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

By far the nation's best-organised entity (some would say its only orderly large group), the army has run Pakistan for 34 of the republic's 61-year history. Often - for example, when then general Musharraf seized power - many Pakistanis have supported these seizures.

The polls - for the 272-seat National Assembly and new legislatures in the country's four provinces - were to have been held on Jan 8. But last Dec 27, an attack, most likely plotted by some of Pakistan's many Islamic extremists, killed former premier Benazir Bhutto, leader of the largest political movement, the centre-left Pakistan People's Party (PPP). In the wake of the disorder that followed immediately, Mr Musharraf set today as the new polling date.

About 80 million registered voters will begin casting their ballots today at some 65,000 polling booths country-wide. Unusually, none of the three leading political personalities is running for a seat.

Ms Bhutto's husband, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, had replaced her as the PPP's effective leader - but not in time for him to qualify as a candidate. Mr Nawaz Sharif - who leads the next largest group, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) - is disqualified, pending resolution of charges involving hijacking, corruption and tax evasion (all Musharraf-sponsored and all denied by Mr Sharif).

Under the Constitution, the national parliament and provincial assemblies elect the president. The Musharraf- appointed election commission confirmed his re-election as head of state last November. Mr Musharraf's increasingly vocal opposition vigorously disputes this decision because he was at that time a military officer and thus performing a dual role forbidden by the Constitution.

Though he is not running in these polls, the President is very much involved. The polls have given Pakistanis an opportunity to take part in what seems likely to be viewed as a referendum on his nine-year rule.

And therein lies the reason for thinking that Mr Musharraf's era has reached a critical watershed. The national mood does not bode well for his administration - or the so-called 'King's Party', the Musharraf-aligned Pakistan Muslim League (Q). (The 'Q' stands for Qaid-i-Azam, or Great Leader, Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the nation's founding head of state.)

Mr Musharraf has some successes to point to, most notably the economy. The government claims that per capita income has more than doubled over the past seven years. But any credits he may have earned on the economy have been dwarfed by political turbulence stemming from the alliance forced on him after the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, directed from Al-Qaeda's bases in neighbouring Afghanistan.

On the eve of the US-led coalition's retaliatory intervention in Afghanistan, President George W. Bush reportedly told the Pakistani leader: 'You are either with us or against us.'

Pakistan's deal to stand with America has increased foreign (especially military) aid but has given Mr Musharraf heavy political burdens.

From January through June of last year, recurrent struggles between the army and religious extremists have escalated. In pitched battles at Islamabad's Red Mosque in July, up to 1,000 or so Islamists and security personnel died.

Two men arrested in connection with the Bhutto assassination plot have allegedly confessed that they helped the suicide bomber out of revenge for the death of a comrade in this incident.

Bombings have killed hundreds. Disturbances have affected distribution of food and other commodities, sharply forcing up prices.

Political incoherence has added to the turmoil. A prolonged dispute between Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and Mr Musharraf resulted in the President dismissing him. In the resultant uproar, Mr Chaudhry was reinstated, then dismissed again a short time later.

Under pressure from foreign well-wishers, especially President Bush - who are thought to fear that nuclear- armed Pakistan might become, in Newsweek's words, 'the world's most dangerous nation' - Mr Musharraf retired from the army, but not the presidency.

After appointing a close colleague as his replacement as army chief, Mr Musharraf remained head of state as a civilian and announced parliamentary elections would be held. Back from exile abroad came former prime ministers Bhutto and Sharif to challenge Mr Musharraf for the voters' endorsement.

But there are shadowy Islamist groups (12 have been officially identified) lurking which seek the destruction - preferably the violent deaths - of all parties except those favouring Pakistan's conversion into a syariah state.

Pre-election opinion polls are not yet a refined science in Pakistan. Though cellphones have proliferated in recent years, main line telephones are still overstretched and rural areas hard to reach.

Nevertheless, a couple of recent nationwide surveys offer indicators of the public mood. A Gallup survey at the end of last month found 64 per cent of Pakistanis were confident their country could become stable if Mr Musharraf resigned very soon.

Another survey, by the Washington-based Centre for Public Opinion, of 1,157 Pakistanis in urban and rural areas found 70 per cent wanted Mr Musharraf to resign. And some 58 per cent believed he and his government were in some way responsible for Ms Bhutto's assassination.

If these polls prove accurate, about 62 per cent of Pakistanis will vote for the PPP or Mr Sharif's PML-N. Only 12 per cent favoured the PML-Q, the King's Party. Disturbingly for the President, the prime minister he deposed enjoys a favourable support rating of 73 per cent, compared with his 30 per cent.

Opposition leaders claim the administration will rig the election. A pamphlet circulated by pro-Bhutto interests - How Elections Are Rigged In Pakistan - warns of at least 77 ways in which results may be falsified, activities which the Bhuttos' PPP was highly skilful at while in power.

Still, these surveys suggest that, in the absence of wholesale fraud, anti-Musharraf forces could indeed win an absolute majority in parliament - enough to force the President's impeachment.

And then what?

Asked about this by The Straits Times last month, Mr Musharraf said: 'Let me assure that I'd be leaving office before they would do anything (like that).'

When I pressed him: 'You would resign?'

He replied: 'Yes, of course.

'If impeachment were their intention and they don't want to go along in a harmonious manner, I would like to quit the scene.'

anthonypaul@asiahand.com <

WATERSHED MOMENT

Sooner or later, public support wanes. Pakistan appears to have reached such a moment. Challenged by a rising urban middle class and increasingly confrontational Islamists, Mr Musharraf seems to be in serious political trouble.