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OIL at US$200 (S$270) to US$250 a barrel, with or without a new Middle East conflict to stoke it? Never bet against the absurd. Reserves are much reduced and at a faster extraction rate since the last absurd price spiral in the 1970s. Oil futures speculation plus bottomless demand in China and India are exerting new pressures as price propellants. Against this backdrop the only certainty, such as it is, in the energy equation is consumer ability to ration use while governments concurrently use tax and research incentives to increase the share of renewable energy sources in overall production. These chiefly would be wind, sunlight, thermal and hydro power.
Energy-wasteful economies of large post-industrial nations have been preaching conservation habits to their populations long before the latest price ructions. To little effect in many cases, with the exception of those wonderfully cooperative Scandinavians. But the Nordics happen to drive cars much less than their wealth and ample space entitle them to. Singaporeans can be energy-efficient out of choice, to save on utility and transport bills. They certainly can expect to hear more of a coordinated conservation message from government ministers and state agencies, as utility and car-use costs are soaring on top of food inflation and purchasing-power deflation. National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan has made a modest pitch in reminding the people of sensible steps to take in household consumption. As the housing minister, he also has sway in getting private developers and his own Housing Board to incorporate rooftop solar panels and heat dissipation materials in their exterior designs. How much of energy saving these efforts amount to in the immediate future need not be calculated to death by the bureaucracy as a measure of success or failure. It is a triumph already if the people gradually observe as a habit energy-reduction tips in their daily lives, and industry uses power smartly to improve profitability.
Energy-reduction alone is not enough. The issue to address is how to cope with the depletion of fossil fuels and their rising cost of extraction. The Worldwatch Institute, an American research outfit, calculates that China will be producing 30 per cent of its energy needs from renewable wind and solar sources by 2050. How? It is investing massively in these technologies and offers fiscal incentives. The green trend is inexorable. It is important to get started. Singapore has made a modest start in solar heat extraction. If offshore wind farms are viable and present no navigational obstacles, they make an attractive proposition. 'Green energy' will not replace oil for generations more, but no nation can afford to not invest to tap what comes free.
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