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THERE is much that is improbable about the truce between Israel and the Hamas government of Gaza, which surprisingly is holding. The United States was apparently cut out of the deal, which would render academic what the Bush team could accomplish of a feeble, belated attempt to forge the beginnings of a solution that is fair
to Palestinians and Israelis. Egypt, as the mediator of the ceasefire begun last week to stop attacks across the Gaza Strip, now gains a moral standing nearly equal to the time when President Anwar Sadat talked peace with Israel's Menachem Begin. He managed to recover territory lost in the 1967 war. Egypt has been a credible intermediary ever since. It could be playing a bigger role in the region's interminable negotiations if the new US administration of either Mr Barack Obama or Mr John McCain takes after the wishy-washy ways of the Bush presidency in Middle East policy-setting.
Another oddity in the week's development is that Israel had never wanted to deal with Hamas. To sensible people everywhere, Hamas is an elected government with a mandate. To the Israelis, it is a terrorist outfit which denies Israel's existence. The personal travails of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert explain to an extent the contradictions. Weighed down by corruption allegations and insecure in his leadership of the Kadima party, he is looking for a policy success to outflank party challengers. Indeed, the Knesset is hearing a Bill today to dissolve itself and call fresh elections. Israelis do not expect Mr Olmert to last much longer. Where does all this leave Gaza? Gazans look like pawns in a high-stakes game. Moreover, a condition of the deal is that Hamas will be held liable for any violation. This looks like a self-destruct mechanism, as Hamas does not have total control of all militant groups. The peace has held for almost a week, however. Any prolonged period that is free of violence is a triumph. Fair-minded people would just be glad the Gazans are enjoying little mercies in having the Israelis' economic blockade gradually lifted. Food and medical supplies are getting through.
And then what? A truce has to be followed by a serious effort at making peace, or building the foundations of one. The inherent weakness of this deal is that it is conditional on Mr Olmert prevailing as prime minister. But even the sensible Mr Ehud Barak, his defence minister and coalition partner, thinks he should resign. The Palestinians' best hope is that the government does not swing to the other extreme, to fall to the unyielding Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, an ex-prime minister. Either way, the poor Gazans will just be swept along with the tide.
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