Dragnet tightens around China's ex-security chief

Dragnet tightens around China's ex-security chief

BEIJING - A dance of sorts has been going on in China for over a year, and nobody really knows when it will end.

But when it does, chances are that it isn't going to look pretty for China's former security chief Zhou Yongkang.

Since December last year, like a predator encircling its prey, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has mounted a dragnet around the former Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) member - by sacking his former confidantes and aides, and investigating them for corruption and various offences.

The latest to fall is former public security vice-minister Li Dongsheng. His sacking, announced last Friday, marks the first time the CCP is targeting the massive security apparatus Mr Zhou, 71, led before his retirement from the apex PSC in November last year.

Over the past year, the party has gone after Mr Zhou's proteges in his two other power bases: south-western Sichuan province where he was party boss from 1999 to 2002, and the petroleum industry where he worked for 30 years.

The witch hunt is thought to have begun with the sacking of former Sichuan deputy boss Li Chuncheng last December.

"It has been a very elaborate process in trying to take Zhou Yongkang down. The CCP... has the evidence to nail him but is going through this elaborate process as part of psychological warfare to pressure him into confessing to his 'crimes'," said Hong Kong-based analyst Willy Lam.

Analysts said the time taken to nail Mr Zhou is longer compared to the CCP's ousting of past high-ranking officials, given his status as a retired PSC member and network of supporters across a wider radius.

Former Beijing party boss Chen Xitong's downfall in April 1995, for instance, was signalled two months before with probes into state-owned Capital Iron and Steel implicating Beijing vice-mayor Wang Baosen, who committed suicide on April 4. Three weeks later, Chen quit his post and was sacked from the Politburo in September.

In August 2006, investigations into Shanghai's labour and social security bureau implicated the personal secretary of the financial hub's party boss Chen Liangyu. A month later, Chen was suspended from the Politburo and sacked from his Shanghai post.

Most recently, former Chongqing party boss and Politburo member Bo Xilai was sacked a month after protege Wang Lijun fled to the United States consulate in Chengdu early last year.

Pointing to an unwritten rule that deems past and current PSC members as "untouchables" for criminal offences like graft, Nottingham University analyst Steve Tsang said more time is thus needed for President Xi Jinping to gather evidence against Mr Zhou.

This, even though the latter is reportedly targeted for political crimes such as allegedly plotting a coup with Bo against Mr Xi.

"Although the Zhou case also has the political dimension, the case being put together by Xi against him is primarily based on criminal wrongdoing. This being the case, Xi can only proceed if all current and retired PSC members, less Zhou, acquiesced," Professor Tsang told The Straits Times.

"Few among the top leaders want to see this precedent and thus, it will take time for Xi to neutralise resistance from the whole lot. Xi is clearly trying to wear the resistance down until he can take action against Zhou."

Peking University analyst Zhang Jian believes Mr Xi sees merit in wearing out Mr Zhou by striking at his men and pressuring him into agreeing not to incite his supporters into retaliation.

"Instead of toppling Zhou in one fell swoop, Xi probably thinks it is less destabilising to go after his people before hitting at him."

The targeting of the security sector, the last of Mr Zhou's power bases, may signal the end of his freedom.

His last public appearance was at his alma mater, China University of Petroleum, in October, said analysts. Some see an announcement by the year end.

Professor Lam thinks former president Jiang Zemin, Mr Zhou's patron, is unable or unwilling to stop an increasingly powerful Mr Xi from targeting the latter.

But even now, it is unclear how Mr Zhou - who would be the biggest of the "tigers" or top officials that Mr Xi pledged to go after in his anti-graft campaign - would be "disciplined". Much would depend on whether the party chooses to deal with him publicly or internally, said analysts.

Prof Zhang believes one likely scenario is keeping quiet and not announcing how he has been disciplined, though he is likely to be put under perpetual house arrest.

Another is to treat Mr Zhou as Bo was: sacking him from the party and putting him through criminal prosecution in an open court.

"If they openly accuse Zhou of criminal offences, they will have to try him in open court or it would spark talk of how top leaders enjoy special treatment under the law," said Prof Lam.

"Trying Zhou in court will embarrass the party, but it will strengthen Xi's hand and image as a strongman who lived up to his pledge in taking on the 'tigers'."

kianbeng@sph.com.sg


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