The imperial succession crisis in Japan

Prince Katsura, a cousin of Japan's Emperor Akihito, died recently, just days after Princess Noriko, the second daughter of another late cousin of the Emperor, announced her engagement to a commoner.

The two events bothered royalists for the same reason: They signify a further shrinking of Japan's royal clan, imperilling not only the conduct of religious court rituals that require the participation of members of royalty, but also, even more importantly, the future of imperial succession in Japan.

The loss of Prince Katsura firstly means one less person able to participate in the "Oharai no gi", an important half-yearly purification ritual conducted by the Imperial Palace. With the Emperor and the Crown Prince exempted from taking part, the only royal houses that still qualify are those headed by the Emperor's second son, Prince Akishino, his 78-year-old younger brother Prince Hitachi and his 98-year- old uncle Prince Mikasa.

The Imperial Household Agency was quick to respond to this mini-crisis, calling immediately this month for a change to the rules to permit female royals to join in the rituals.

Even with the wedding later this year of Princess Noriko - who will have to give up her royal status upon her marriage - there will still be seven princesses in their 20s or 30s who can be called on to do so. The bigger problem is that of imperial succession.

The death of Prince Katsura leaves only five people in the line of succession to the Japanese throne. All five are males since females are currently not allowed to ascend to the throne.

The first in line is Crown Prince Naruhito, the Emperor's first son. He is followed by his brother Prince Akishino.

Third in line is Prince Hisahito, the seven-year-old son of Prince Akishino. Prince Hitachi, the Emperor's brother, and Prince Mikasa, his uncle, bring up the rear.

Prince Hitachi has no children.

The death of Prince Katsura, who never married, brings the branch of his father, Prince Mikasa, to an end since his two late brothers had only daughters.

About 10 years ago, during the administration of then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, a wise men's group comprising academics, business leaders and retired senior civil servants was put together to deliberate the imperial succession issue.

In a report in November 2005, the group, knowing the issue would split public opinion, gingerly recommended opening the door to female emperors as well as making it possible for succession by royals through the maternal line. But the birth of Prince Hisahito on Sept 6, 2006, threw cold water on the report.

After Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took over the reins of administration on Sept 26 that year - for his first stint as premier - he shelved the entire matter.

A hardened conservative who dreams of restoring Japan to its pre-war glory, Mr Abe does not favour the idea of a female on the Chrysanthemum Throne.

Democrat premier Yoshihiko Noda, who came to power in September 2011, proved far less short-sighted. In October 2012, he tentatively suggested allowing female royals to retain their royal status even after marriage, a change of rule that would allow them to head their own royal houses.

Under present law, female royals who marry commoners - they have little choice since there are now no eligible male royals - are stripped of their royal status.

Unfortunately, the Democrats lost power two months later in December 2012, and Mr Noda was replaced by Mr Abe, who began a second stint as premier.

Mr Abe, fearing that Mr Noda's proposal would pave the way for Japan to have a female emperor in the future, immediately threw out the proposal.

But the crisis, of course, remains. By the time Prince Hisahito becomes an adult at the age of 20, he will probably be the only male royal of his generation. What if there are no male children to succeed him, which is a very real possibility?

Opening the door to female emperors would be one way of ensuring the continuation of the dynasty. But despite the succession crisis staring him in the face, Mr Abe has taken no action so far to deal with it.

Experts suggest that there may be one way of saving Japan's endangered imperial system - by reinstating a previous imperial line that was scuttled after the end of World War II by the United States-led occupation forces.

Besides the immediate family members of then Emperor Hirohito, the new laws drawn up by the occupation forces permitted the retention of only three other royal houses headed by the emperor's three brothers. The result was that 11 royal houses, along with their 51 male and female members, lost their royal status overnight. But even today, the 11 former royal houses continue to maintain their social ties with the emperor's clan. After all, they once supplied princesses as wives for emperors and their sons.

According to an expert on Japanese royalty, Professor Hidetsugu Yagi of Reitaku University, the 11 former royal houses in fact constituted a legitimate imperial line in the past. Reinstating this defunct line could therefore help to ensure there will be more eligible males for the throne.

It is not known how many males there are now among former royals. More importantly, it is not known how many of them would be willing to assume royal status once more given the obligations it entails and the restrictions on their daily lives.

wengkin@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on June 17, 2014.
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