Modi government likely to continue Look East foreign policy

NEW DELHI - Indians have voted themselves a prime minister known for his decisive leadership and assertive style but it may be a while yet before Mr Narendra Modi can put his personal stamp on foreign policy.

"There was a deliberate ambiguity in the Manmohan Singh government's foreign policy while Modi's will be more clear-cut," said former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh.

"But, while Modi can bring greater emphasis on certain aspects, his room for manoeuvre is small."

Once in power, Mr Modi is expected to move swiftly to repair his personal equation with the United States, which has made the first overtures to him with congratulatory messages from President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry. He will also likely open several new windows with China, particularly on building economic ties.

Yet, as he assumes national leadership and has to take stock of the inevitable competition for strategic dominance in Asia, larger considerations are likely to come into play.

This is why, two days after the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) stunning win by a landslide, the bets are on the development-focused Mr Modi travelling to Japan for his first bilateral visit.

However, before that trip, people familiar with his thinking say that he may travel to Myanmar for a multilateral meeting, the East Asia Summit.

Strategic affairs expert Brahma Chellaney points out that Mr Modi's soft nationalism and market-oriented economics mirror those of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, making them natural allies.

Like Mr Abe, said Professor Chellaney, Mr Modi will focus on reviving the economy while boosting India's defences and strategic linkages to key world powers.

"Modi's victory is likely to turn Indo-Japan ties into the main driver of India's Look East policy," Prof Chellaney added.

Should that happen, it would reflect not so much of a break but a continuity in foreign policy.

Earlier this year, when Mr Abe arrived as chief guest at India's Republic Day parade, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared that Japan was at the centre of India's Look East policy.

Ties between Asia's second and third largest economies are growing apace and Tokyo, which is building a military industrial complex, is breaking with the past to sell India advanced technology that could also have military implications.

Within South Asia, many expect that Mr Modi's forceful personality and public criticism of Pakistan could lead him to take a tougher line with Islamabad, where the military dominates external policy.

The BJP manifesto, they point out, spoke of "revising and updating" India's nuclear doctrine, which was widely interpreted as a relook of its "no first use" policy on nuclear weapons.

But Mr Modi himself laid that speculation to rest.

"There is no compromise on that," he said, referring to the "no first use" policy.

"We are very clear. No first use is a reflection of our cultural inheritance."

There has also been speculation that should India suffer another attack from non-state actors based inside Pakistan, as it did in 2008, Mr Modi would order a strike back.

If so, the retaliation would probably come not by direct military means. Mr Modi's elbow room is limited.

One reason is that Mr Modi's home state, Gujarat, borders Pakistan and he would be fully aware of how vulnerable to attack its massive petrochemical complexes and ports would be.

The extensive investment drawn by Gujarat is in part a factor of reasonably stable India-Pakistan ties.

Second, no Indian leader can afford escalating a conflict to the point of using nuclear weapons.

While India does have the means to obliterate Pakistan in minutes, the reverse is possible as well.

Besides, New Delhi is fully aware that wind patterns on the subcontinent are such that the radioactive fallout from an attack on Pakistan would enter India in no time and would not only affect cities across northern India, but also wipe out much of its grain bowl.

"You cannot take foolhardy actions with any neighbour, Pakistan or China," said South Asia foreign policy specialist S.D. Muni.

"The fundamentals of foreign policy are based on a broad national consensus. I don't see a radical change."

Possible picks for new Cabinet

Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi will have a problem of plenty when it comes to filling his Cabinet, which is expected to be small. We take a look at some names making the rounds as possible picks. They include party heavyweights, newcomers and technocrats:

l ARUN JAITLEY, 61: The former trade minister stood in his first election and lost. Even so, the appointed member of the Upper House and Modi loyalist is likely to be given a key role. In campaign rallies, the articulate lawyer has repeatedly been introduced as the next finance minister.

l SUSHMA SWARAJ, 62: The leader of the opposition in the Lower House was information and broadcasting minister in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government which was voted out in 2004. A lawyer, Ms Swaraj is known as a fiery orator.

l RAJNATH SINGH, 62: The president of the BJP will be up for a top role if he joins the Cabinet. But this means that he will have to give up the party chief post. Mr Singh was instrumental in getting a consensus on naming Mr Modi as the prime ministerial candidate for the BJP despite fierce opposition from the party's old guard.

l NITIN GADKARI, 56: The former BJP chief resigned and was replaced by Mr Rajnath Singh last year after he faced allegations of involvement in irregularities in a business group he promoted. He recently received a clean chit from the income tax department, and this has brought him back to the party's top echelons.

l S. JAISHANKAR, 58: The well-regarded diplomat served as India's high commissioner to Singapore and ambassador to China before taking on his current ambassadorship to the US. He was a key player in negotiations for a landmark India-US civilian nuclear deal struck in 2008.

l SHYAM SARAN, 66: The former foreign secretary has served as ambassador to Nepal, Indonesia and Myanmar, and was foreign secretary to Dr Manmohan Singh from 2004 to 2010.

l E. SREEDHARAN, 81: He came to be known as the "Metro Man", after spearheading the Delhi metro rail project. The technocrat endorsed the BJP after his face was inadvertently found plastered on party posters. The BJP apologised, calling it "an honest mistake".

l RAM VILAS PASWAN, 67: His Lok Janshakti Party, a BJP ally, drew a blank in 2009 but last Friday won six of the seven seats it contested in Bihar. He is a former railway minister.

l AJIT DOVAL, 69: The former Intelligence Bureau chief is believed to be close to the BJP leadership. He heads security think-tank Vivekananda International Foundation.

l ARUN SHOURIE, 72: The former World Bank economist and newspaper editor helmed the telecom and disinvestment portfolios under the previous BJP administration.

l RAVI SHANKAR PRASAD, 59: Articulate and popular, the Bihari politician is a familiar face on Indian television news programmes by virtue of his position as party spokesman. He is a former information and broadcasting minister.

l GENERAL V.K. SINGH, 63: The former army chief contested and won his first election battle from Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh. He made news when he was involved in a public spat with the Congress-led government over his retirement age in 2012.

velloor@sph.com.sg

gnirmala@sph.com.sg

This article was published on May 19 in The Straits Times.

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