Risk of Thai protest violence 'rising'

Risk of Thai protest violence 'rising'

Last Friday, as the global community grew more alarmed over Thailand's unfolding political crisis, Suthep Thaugsuban, the secretary- general of the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), wrote a letter to United States president Barack Obama.

"The PDRC strategy is based on non-violent civil disobedience," he wrote, in the letter uploaded on its Facebook page. "Throughout the world, people have claimed their rightful independence, received recognition of civil rights, fought apartheid and defeated communism through this same civil disobedience."

Leaders of the three-month campaign to oust Thailand's caretaker government have repeatedly stressed that their supporters are unarmed and their actions peaceful. An ongoing study by Chulalongkorn University's Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, however, has found that this is not only untrue, but the risk of violence is rising as well.

Since protesters started blockading Bangkok's key intersections on Jan 13 to "shut down" the city and oust caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, a team of 30 volunteers has been taking the pulse on the streets every day to assess the risk of violence.

Among the indicators they track: Hate speech, weapons carried by the protesters as well as the authorities, property damage, and how responsive both sides are to their leaders.

In at least four of seven major protest sites around Bangkok, protesters were found carrying knives and handguns, noted political scientist Naruemon Thabchumpon, one of the project's coordinators. Security forces in the area carried similar weapons.

"Even though they say they are not violent, they have equipment," she said.

Rally sites have increasingly been fortified by sand bunkers and rubber tyres, while bulletproof jackets are becoming more commonplace, partly due to armed attacks by unknown individuals.

Last week, the government declared a state of emergency in the lead up to the Feb 2 general election.

The polls are expected to return the dominant Puea Thai party to power. Protesters, determined to prevent this outcome, want the polls scrapped in favour of reforms enacted by an unelected "people's council". Their cause is supported by a spectrum of elites, bureaucrats, the urban middle class and other supporters of the opposition Democrat Party, which is boycotting the election.

Beyond the weaponry, analysts say it is debatable whether the protesters' tactics can be described as peaceful. While most demonstrators remain unarmed, many have intimidated civil servants into stopping work. A common method is to surround a government building and threaten to cut off its power and electricity supply.

In the Democrat stronghold of southern Thailand, blockades and threats have created a shortage of election officials. Protesters reportedly manhandled a government official who wanted to keep working, and forced schools to close.

For now though, both the caretaker government as well as protest leaders are trying to keep a lid on violence, said Dr Naruemon.

But it is not clear what will happen today, when advance voting begins. Suthep has called on supporters to surround polling stations to "persuade" voters not to step out of their homes.

tanhy@sph.com.sg


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