The U-turn in nuclear power policy

SINGAPORE- As 2014 approaches, South-east Asian states are moving ahead with plans to push ahead with nuclear power plants. In doing this, they are being supported by generous terms provided by the governments of South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and France, which will provide the technology.

Singapore, however, has concluded that the safety risks are too high and current technology is not advanced enough to embark on the use of nuclear power. In a parliamentary statement in October last year, the Government announced that it will not pursue the nuclear option at the present time. This makes Singapore an exception.

Vietnam is the most advanced, with two Russian-built reactors to be completed by 2020 followed by two Japanese reactors in southern Ninh Thuan province. Another six reactors are proposed.

In Thailand, two reactors are planned and four are being considered.

Malaysia plans to build two reactors in coastal areas of southern Johor.

Indonesia is considering smaller reactors on Bangka island and in West Kalimantan.

The Philippines is debating re-commissioning a nuclear plant built in Bataan by Westinghouse Corp of the United States in the 1980s. As a result of both safety and political concerns, this power plant has never been operational. It was built close to a seismic fault line near the then-dormant Mount Pinatubo, and was also at the centre of intensive corruption investigations.

Major shift in approach

The shift towards nuclear power marks a major about-turn in the region.

Like the rest of the world, there was a fundamental re-thinking in South-east Asia following the March 2011 tsunami and destruction of the Fukushima nuclear power plant. The safety risks of nuclear power gained global attention and led to a major shift in perceptions in developed countries. Germany took the lead in moving to close down existing nuclear power facilities.

However, barely 2½ years later, the nuclear power lobby has been effective in getting governments in South-east Asia to reassess the situation and to proceed with their original plans.

The effectiveness of such lobbying occurs because of shared perspectives. The builders of nuclear power plants are attracted by the possibility of new customers to replace vanishing developed country consumers, governments are keen to reduce their reliance on imported energy, and domestic scientific lobbies are eager to deploy cutting-edge technology.

But it is the search for energy security that is at the heart of the turn to nuclear energy. Although there is consumer resistance because of the fear of nuclear accidents, it is largely unorganised. Critics of nuclear power are usually confined to civil society groups at the margins of policymaking.

No more energy scarcity

Ironically, this move to nuclear energy is taking place at a time when the energy scarcity envisaged a decade ago is being overturned. New developments include clean coal technologies, shale oil and gas discoveries, the exploitation of geo-thermal and biofuel resources and advances in solar and wind power. These resources are abundantly available in South-east Asia.

Policymakers are driven by mental models of a world whose future seemed clearly charted a decade ago. Sharply increasing fossil fuel prices at that time made nuclear power an attractive policy option, especially as governments had to meet the challenge of growing budget deficits with rising fuel subsidies.

While the cost of nuclear power remains high, the rapidly increasing exploitation of shale gas will drive down energy costs in the region, especially as Australian sources come on-stream. Clean coal technologies pioneered by China and the United States will also reduce the carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants.

Indonesian example

Indonesia is a classic example of how these alternatives are in danger of being ignored. Policymakers backed by the National Nuclear Energy Agency (Batan) are pushing for nuclear power despite the country's abundant resources of coal, geo-thermal energy as well as solar and wind power. As the world's leading palm oil producer, Indonesia is also a major source of biofuels.

Nuclear power advocates emerged soon after the 2009 elections, even though it was absent from electoral debates. A similar situation can be expected after the 2014 elections. Since the mid-1980s, Batan has pushed for the development of a nuclear power plant on the slopes of the Muria peninsula, a dormant volcano in a seismically active area in north central Java.

Its plans were first delayed by the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and later by the strong opposition of the local population in a newly democratic Indonesia. After examining a range of other options, Batan is now contemplating smaller nuclear plants in Bangka island and in West Kalimantan.

However, neither proposal is cost-effective. As the main users of electricity are in Java, undersea cables would be used to transmit the power generated, resulting in a significant transmission loss.

In any case, plentiful coal is available in Kalimantan and coal-fired plants using state-of-the-art clean coal technologies are significantly cheaper to operate than nuclear power plants with the latest technology.

Cultural practices

In Indonesia, Batan has been fixated with the nuclear power option. However, in 2011, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Widjajono Partowidagdo noted that Indonesia was not ready to build a nuclear power plant because of the level of corruption and weak supervision in the country.

Similarly, Japan's Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission report, cited in the Japanese Diet's report on the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, noted that Japanese cultural conventions, cliquish behaviour and the tendency not to question authority could have an impact on safety management and governance. Such attitudes also characterise South-east Asian societies beyond Indonesia.

Although advocates of nuclear power technology argue that the technology used will be more advanced than in the Fukushima reactors, they have not focused on South-east Asia's bureaucratic culture of obedience and deference as well as the willingness to take short cuts and compromise on quality and efficiency.

Even in Singapore, similar problems can occur. The failings of our MRT system demonstrated that in 2011-2012.

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