Ask me who will win World Cup? Don't bet on it

You may already know this, but I think it's worth repeating anyway: The apocalypse is coming.

In 11 days' time, to be exact.

On June 12, the World Cup will kick off in Brazil and zombies will roam large parts of the planet, in Singapore and other countries in football-crazy, sleep-deprived Asia.

Expect economies to suffer. A flatmate of mine is from Sao Paolo and she believes her country's economy will hibernate or worse, collapse.

"The World Cup is going to be terrible for Brazil," she told me recently - ironically while proudly parading her new Brazil football jersey. "No one will work. It's a one-month public holiday."

I'm not surprised. Everyone's brains collectively short-circuit during the World Cup.

Singaporeans will be extremely concerned about the fate of countries they have never stepped foot in, located thousands of kilometres away.

Many men will look at their doting wives and cherubic young children at home and think, "Bye, I'm going to watch TV for the next 30 days."

It will probably affect me as well. Not so much the ditching non-existent wife and children part, but I will very likely lose the ability to make sound judgment.

How else do I explain why I always take up wagers with friends during the World Cup?

Another invitation to join an informal pool arrived in my e-mail recently. I told my friend I'm thinking about skipping it this year.

After all, I almost never bet on anything, whether it's 4-D, Toto or the English Premier League. I've not stepped into Singapore's two casinos before. I don't even play mahjong.

I avoid these things partly because I know the odds of winning are not in my favour. And, by the way, I love winning.

But the World Cup messes with your brain. In fact, my understanding of football wagers began when, as a little kid watching his first World Cup in 1990, I wondered why the adults were all "eating half balls" like there was a shortage of fishballs at the market.

Subsequently I've made casual bets every four years, thinking that my experience following football generally and watching many World Cups should pay off.

It never does. I have a horrible track record in World Cup predictions.

Ahead of the 2002 World Cup, for instance, I wrote a whole article for a special pull-out for my university paper, expounding the merits of Thierry Henry and Gabriel Batistuta, before concluding that Argentina will pip France as favourites and lift its third World Cup.

Both countries were promptly knocked out in the first round.

What's especially galling - and another reason I really should stop joining these pools - is that I often end up losing my money to somebody who is already super rich or who doesn't even watch football and is just, aw shucks, playing "for fun".

During the last World Cup, a Malaysian friend of mine who is more familiar with Anwar Ibrahim than Zlatan Ibrahimovic decided on a whim to join a World Cup pool I was in, organised among a group of friends.

I spent three hours poring through individual World Cup qualifying groups and the draw for the World Cup finals before selecting the four teams I favoured to do well.

She spent 10 seconds looking at the list of participating nations and picked Portugal among her choices because she thinks it's a beautiful country. Which is like saying you want to buy Nokia stocks now because you like Finland's scenery.

My brain quietly exploded when her teams uniformly did better than mine as the competition progressed.

"Oh that's wonderful. You have a knack for this," I was humiliated into saying repeatedly through gritted teeth and forced smiles.

Honestly, I don't know why we football fans even bother. I should have realised predicting matches was a lost cause when an octopus in a German zoo was picking winners more accurately than most expert pundits during the last World Cup. I'm certain more animals will be coming out of their pens, cages and tanks to humiliate humans over the next few weeks, as the apocalypse hits full swing.

This is infuriating, for someone who thinks that knowledge and research should make a difference.

I know what you're thinking now. "What an idiot. I hope he tells me what team is going to win the World Cup so I won't bet on that team."

Despite your unnecessary name-calling, I do endeavour to give value to readers, so here goes: I believe defending champion Spain is still the team to beat.

Some sceptics might point to the slump in Barcelona's form as cause for concern since the Catalan team forms a significant nucleus of the Spanish squad.

But both teams in the recent Champions League final - Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid - hail from Spain, and Barcelona were just pipped to the Primera Liga title only on the last day of the competition by Atletico.

Opponents may have wised up to Spain's possession-style football and quick passing, but its squad is still packed with talent. But seriously, the most important thing is that Spain has really pretty scenery and art museums. Just ask your dog.

chengwee@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on June 01, 2014.
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