Chua Hak Bin joins Maybank Kim Eng, sees Singapore 2017 growth at 2.5 per cent

Prominent economist Chua Hak Bin has joined Maybank Kim Eng after leaving Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) last year, and after a short stint at Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC.

He now starts off in his new role - and the new year - with a strong optimism that the Singapore economy can achieve a 2.5 per cent growth this year, while also urging the city-state to be more open to foreign workers.

"Singapore will thrive if it builds 'bridges' while others build 'walls'," he wrote in a Jan 12 note, in a not-so-subtle reference to US President-elect Donald Trump's idea to build a wall on the US-Mexican border to shut out immigrants.

"The battle today is for foreign talent, particularly in technology."

Dr Chua left his role as head of ASEAN economics research at BAML early last year amid a banking sector slowdown.

He then became a consultant for GIC, sources told The Business Times.

Dr Chua has also previously held the position of a director at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

In response to BT's queries, John Chong, chief executive officer of Maybank Kim Eng Group, confirmed that Dr Chua joined the bank on Jan 3 as its Singapore economist and regional thematic macroeconomist.

"We are building up our regional macro thematic research capabilities and I am very pleased that Hak Bin will be leading this effort."

In a note issued on Jan 12, Dr Chua said that a recovery in global export volumes and the manufacturing sector will lift Singapore's full-year growth to 2.5 per cent for 2017.

This is a noticeably faster pace than the 1.8 per cent he sees in 2016.

Dr Chua's prediction for 2017 is one of the more optimistic ones.

An MAS poll of economists put 2017 growth at 1.5 per cent, and 2016's 1.4 per cent.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) sees 2017 growth at one to 3 per cent. Flash data put 2016 at 1.8 per cent.

The muted 2017 forecast is partially due to doubts about Singapore's export-led economy being able to benefit from a global upswing that is driven by a US recovery.

Dr Chua agreed with this view, saying that Singapore "used to be regarded as a 'high beta'", or sensitive, to US growth by a magnitude of about 1.6.

That is now below 1, though still positive.

The faster expansion in 2017 would then come from a "synchronised" recovery in the region, he wrote.

This means that ASEAN growth and exports in goods will quicken together with the US recovery.

And with exports in goods not seeing an uplift from a US recovery, Dr Chua urged Singapore to welcome foreign talent instead, as the focus now shifts to the export in services.

He said this is even more pressing now with the focus on technology and entrepreneurship.

For every job created in the high-tech sector, another 4.3 jobs emerge, three times more than that of manufacturing.

Policy easing in this area, therefore will help to brighten economic prospects even further for Singapore.

soonwl@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on January 13, 2017.
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