BERLIN - Germany, which has long seen itself as the star pupil among debt-mired European economies, is heading for a steep decline driven by serious delusions about its own model, prominent experts are warning.
This gloom-and-doom scenario for Europe's top economic power is at the heart of a new book by Marcel Fratzscher, head of the influential German Institute for Economic Research, which is coming out Monday and already inviting wide scrutiny.
In "The Germany Illusion", Fratzscher argues that the bare facts paint an angst-inducing vision of the future in which some of the key sources of German national pride - discipline and thrift - become the tools of its undoing.
"The economy of this country is sputtering. Its growth since 2000 is weaker than the European average. Salaries have risen more slowly and poverty, on the rise, is impacting one child in five." So opens the 277-page call to action.
The reader could be forgiven for thinking the subject was any number of ailing southern European countries.
Fratzscher argues that Germany's own flattering self-image when it comes to management of its economy, a model driven by deficit-trimming and trade surpluses, is simply "dangerous".
Germany, he says, is "resting on its laurels" while the average household income has sunk three per cent since the turn of the millennium, and five per cent for the poorest citizens.
He acknowledges that the country has come a long way since it was known as the "sick man of Europe" a little over a decade ago, and bounced back from the debilitating 2009 financial crisis.
Meanwhile Chancellor Angela Merkel's left-right "grand coalition" has for next year put forward the first balanced German budget since 1969.
Enormous lack of investment
All the trumpeted achievements, however, cannot mask "the fundamental weaknesses of the German economy", notably its "enormous lack of investment".
Outlays for investment, still at 23 per cent of gross national product in the early 1990s, have now fallen to 17 per cent - markedly below the 20 per cent average for industrialised countries.
This has hobbled growth in output as well as salaries.
"The downfall of the German economy will accelerate if we do not fundamentally change the current policies," Fratzscher warns.
After watching a dreary march of negative indicators in recent months, the business editor of Germany's Die Welt and Welt am Sonntag newspapers, Olaf Gersemann, also presents a bleak outlook in a book released earlier this month, "The Germany Bubble".
We are witnessing the "swan song of a great economic nation", he warns, convinced that the country is taking advantage of a mix of "very favourable circumstances" that will "soon disappear".