'We're flowing toward the path' similar to time before Great Depression, analyst says

'We're flowing toward the path' similar to time before Great Depression, analyst says
Statues depicting unemployed men standing in a unemployment line during the Great Depression at the Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) Memorial in Washington, DC on September 20, 2012.
PHOTO: AFP

Although the economy has been steady this year, at least one analyst has dire predictions, comparing the current period to the buildup to the Great Depression and warning that this fall is when things will come to a head.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, has been predicting bad news for the economy since January and he is sticking by that, saying Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch" that he believes too much stimulus and quantitative easing has resulted in a "huge" bubble in US stocks.

"I have this belief that we're flowing toward the path of 1928-29 when Hoover was president," Yusko said.

"Now Trump is president. Both were presidents with no experience who come in with a Congress that is all Republican, lots of big promises, lots of things that don't happen and the fall is when people realise, 'Wait, it hasn't played out the way we thought.'"

He points to evidence of declining growth as well as that fall is a weak time traditionally for the US economy as people return from vacation.

"[By the fall], we'll have a lot more evidence of declining growth. Growth has been slipping," he said.

However, it was not all gloom and doom as Yusko said the emerging markets were still strong places to invest.

"Growth is where you want to invest," he said.

"All the growth is in the emerging markets, the developing world. It's really tough if you look around the developed world." he said profits in the United States are the same as they were in 2012.

Yusko said at the beginning of the year "every single analyst" said emerging markets were going to underperform the US.

"That hasn't been the case," he said.

Indeed, in 2017 the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been up more than 18 per cent while the S&P 500 index has risen more than 8 per cent.

S&P 500 (blue) vs iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (green) in 2017

PHOTO: FactSet

He also sees trends that are going to push interest rates down, making growth harder to find and emerging markets more attractive.

Those trends are the killer D's, according to Yusko: bad demographics in the US, Europe and Japan and too much debt and deflation.

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