China's ex-security chief 'unlikely to get light sentence'

China's ex-security chief 'unlikely to get light sentence'

Former security czar Zhou Yongkang, who is at the centre of China's biggest corruption probe in history, is unlikely to get off lightly, experts say.

The sensational trial of fallen political star Bo Xilai last year where proceedings were aired live on a micro-blog could even be dwarfed if Beijing decides to go ahead with an open criminal trial for Mr Zhou - a scenario that is likely, experts say.

In a terse statement on Tuesday, the official Xinhua news agency said that Mr Zhou, who retired from the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) in 2012, is being investigated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for "serious disciplinary violation". The term is typically a euphemism for corruption, signalling that President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign has now reached PSC members long regarded as untouchable.

Mr Xi's two immediate predecessors - Mr Hu Jintao and Mr Jiang Zemin - had given their consent for the probe, allowing Mr Xi to break the unwritten rule, Reuters reported, quoting sources.

While the heaviest punishment meted out in such internal investigations is expulsion from the party, the case is often passed to the courts. The expelled official is then charged and put on trial.

Already, Mr Zhou's expulsion from the CCP seems imminent.

Notably missing from Tuesday's Xinhua report was the honorific "comrade", indicating that he will be - or has already been - booted out of the party, experts note.

With Mr Xi repeatedly stressing the need to uphold the rule of law, the likelihood that Mr Zhou's case will be brought before the court in an open trial is also high.

"Legal procedures are symbolically important and necessary to convince the public that the probe is not just a political or power struggle, but a matter of justice," Professor Huang Jing of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy told The Straits Times.

To cut deals or allow for leniency in such a politically significant case - even if Mr Zhou were to cooperate with investigators - would make Mr Xi lose political capital and legitimacy, he added.

Whether such a trial might include the same degree of openness and transparency as Bo's remains to be seen.

The former Chongqing party chief's political career imploded after the death of a British businessman, for which his wife was convicted of murder. Bo himself was sentenced to life in prison for bribery, embezzlement and abuse of power in September last year.

In an unprecedented move, the court that tried Bo released transcripts and photos of the proceedings on a live micro-blog.

Shenzhen University analyst Ma Jingren said the courts would have learnt from their previous experience in conducting a public trial for a high-profile suspect but it is unclear if they might use the same methods.

An editorial in the state-run Global Times, however, pressed for "timely revelations" and more transparency yesterday.

"Chinese judicial organs showed a certain transparency to the public when they dealt with Bo Xilai's case, and we hope they can improve this in regard to Zhou's case," the English-language daily said.

But Sydney-based China expert Kerry Brown said a public trial that would give Mr Zhou a chance to speak out might not take place. Rather, a "plea bargaining" process might occur instead as the case wraps up.

Still, experts are agreed that it is the end of the road for Mr Zhou. Depending on the "crimes exposed" during the investigation, the sentence could range from 20 years' jail to the death penalty, Prof Huang said.

"Zhou Yongkang is as good as finished."

News of probe makes headlines, sets cyberspace abuzz in China

The fall of retired security czar Zhou Yongkang made front-page news as netizens clamoured for more information on the once-powerful politician who is being investigated by the Chinese Communist Party for corruption.

After months of official silence on Mr Zhou's fate, during which overseas publications speculated on when the axe might fall, news of the investigation broke on Tuesday evening.

It made headlines yesterday, with all state media including the People's Daily and the English-language China Daily reporting on it.

Many dailies also carried editorials praising the government's "firm anti-graft resolve" which demonstrated that no one was above the law.

The China Daily, for instance, said in its editorial that "Zhou's fate will send shudders down the spines of other abusers who may be entertaining the illusion that their high positions and retirement will protect them".

But the long-rumoured probe into the most senior figure targeted to date in Beijing's anti-corruption drive also lit up cyberspace with more than 30 million posts on the Twitter-like Sina Weibo in less than 24 hours.

It also generated a staggering 40.3 million hits on Chinese search engine Baidu.com by yesterday afternoon.

This is in stark contrast to the past when Weibo posts that made any reference to an official probe into Mr Zhou were wiped out almost instantly by censors.

While some users praised President Xi Jinping's anti-graft drive, others were sceptical, insinuating that the probe was politically motivated. Some wondered if other "tigers", a reference to high-ranking officials, might be next.

Weibo user "tanmouren", for instance, said Mr Zhou was "the sacrificial outcome of changing times" while "wangkai8023" said he will believe no one is above the law only if presidents and premiers are investigated as well.

esthert@sph.com.sg


This article was first published on July 31, 2014.
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