'Chocolate king' ahead in Ukraine presidential race

'Chocolate king' ahead in Ukraine presidential race

UKRAINE - Ukraine's voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president after Mr Viktor Yanukovych's ouster in February triggered a Russian military intervention and the worst East-West showdown since the end of the Cold War.

With fabulous personal wealth and nicknames such as the "chocolate king" and the "gas princess", the leading presidential candidates read like the cast of a Hollywood B-movie. But the ballots will decide the fate of the country, which is facing a civil war and financial bankruptcy.

Despite the dangerous security situation, the electoral campaign has been lively and peaceful. Twenty candidates are vying for the top post, including a far-right leader advocating the death penalty for Russian separatists and a skincare specialist who likes to play folk songs to the public.

But only three candidates are serious contenders: Mr Petro Poroshenko, a tycoon nicknamed the "chocolate king", who is now viewed as the unstoppable front runner; former prime minister Yuliya Tymoshenko, Ukraine's most famous but also its most polarising figure who is trailing second in the polls; and Mr Serhiy Tyhypko, an amiable banking billionaire running a distant third.

Their most immediate challenge is to ensure that Sunday's vote takes place peacefully, and that its results are accepted by ethnic Russian separatists within the country and by neighbouring Russia, which champions their cause.

The omens are not encouraging: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov continues to dismiss the election as "very destructive" and has argued that it should not take place before the Ukrainian authorities find "some common ground" with separatists in the east of the country.

According to the Central Electoral Commission, a 70,000-strong police force will be on patrol on Sunday and armoured vehicles will be used to transport ballot papers. The presence of about 1,200 international observers should also help maintain order.

Much will ultimately depend on the national turnout: If a large share of Ukraine's 45 million-strong population vote, the authorities would be able to argue that the ballots are legitimate, even if the voting is not held in some rebel regions.

A great deal will also depend on how decisive the election outcome is. Under Ukraine's Constitution, a presidential candidate wins outright only if he or she attracts at least half of the votes cast; if no candidate reaches this threshold, a second ballot is held between the top two candidates.

Latest opinion polls indicate that Mr Poroshenko can count on the support of around 56 per cent of those who say they would definitely vote, more than enough to secure victory. Still, pollsters acknowledge a larger-than-usual margin of error in their findings, and caution that Ms Tymoshenko, currently a poor second at only 9.6 per cent of those likely to vote, may end up doing better because she is an excellent campaigner. An inconclusive result on Sunday would strengthen Russia's claim that Ukraine is ungovernable, and risks emboldening ethnic Russian separatists.

But even if the outcome is conclusive and Mr Poroshenko becomes president, Ukraine's stability still hangs by a thread. Mr Poroshenko has said almost nothing about what he proposes to do once elected. His campaign, run with the meaningless slogan of "To live in a new way", has promised that Ukraine would join the European Union and would become a "flourishing, prosperous state", ignoring the fact that EU membership is not on offer, and that prosperity requires years of economic pain.

Nor has Mr Poroshenko said much about the fact that, under the constitutional changes introduced recently in Ukraine, the next president will have far fewer powers, and will have to work with a government formed by the majority in Parliament.

And that parliamentary majority is now in the hands of the Fatherland Party of Ms Tymoshenko. So, even if she is defeated on Sunday, she stands a good chance of staging a comeback as prime minister, for the third time.

Mr Poroshenko claims that, despite his widely acknowledged loathing of Ms Tymoshenko, he is prepared to work with anyone. Ms Tymoshenko has made similar pledges.

Still, the stage is set for a repeat of a classic Ukrainian theme: a moment of national unity at election time, followed by years of personal bickering thereafter.


This article was first published on May 22, 2014.
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