New home-school distance rule kept Princess Elizabeth Primary School oversubscribed 5:1 in Phase 2C this year

2022 is the first year the new home-school distance rule is implemented for primary one registrations.

With this new rule, primary one priority admissions, if it comes down to a ballot, will be based on the distance between the student's residence and the school's boundary/fence/border instead of its centre.

When this was announced last year, we mentioned how this new rule, together with merging Phases 2A(1) and 2A(2) – which are mostly based on school affiliation – would increase competition for entry. This is significant in Phase 2C, when parents register their children with entry chances purely based on distance and nationality.

We should also note that this year, Phase 2C spots have increased from a minimum of 20 to 40 (with additional spots being rolled over from prior Phases). This is a move by the government to decrease chances based on school affiliation but increase chances based on how close the child lives to the school.

Interestingly, this year, Princess Elizabeth Primary School in Bukit Batok recorded the highest registration rate in Phase 2C.

Last year, it was one of the top five most oversubscribed primary schools in the same phase (behind Northland, Nan Hua, South View and St Hilda's).

It should be noted that nearly half of all 181 Primary Schools went into Phase 2C balloting this year – almost the same as last year.

Phase 2C Registration Statistics of Princess Elizabeth Primary School (2018-2022)

Based on past years' Phase 2C statistics, the school has consistently been one of the top most oversubscribed primary schools in the neighbourhood, with recent ratios showing five students vying for one spot.

In absolute terms, there's been a 17.8 per cent increase in applications in 2022 compared to 2021. If we look at Phase 2C applications over the past five years, Princess Elizabeth Primary School (PEPS) is seeing a continuing year-on-year increase in applicants.

Home-School Distance residential address conditions

To qualify for school-proximity balloting prioritisation during Phase 2C, parents and child have to meet one of these conditions:

1. If the declared home is already completed: The child must fulfil a 30-month minimum stay at the address from the start of the Primary 1 registration exercise (starting from June 29, 2022).
2. If the declared home is a resale: The child must move into the address and stay there for at least 30 months from the start of the P1 academic year (basically family must move into the resale home no later than Jan 2023).
3. If the declared home is not completed yet (still under construction): Child must move into the address within two years of his or her entry into P1 and live there for at least 30 months. For 2022's exercise, the two-year window where the family needs to move in would probably be Jan 2023 to Dec 2024, so the estimated TOP dates of the property play a crucial part here. After moving into the property, they have to live there for at least 30 months. What some parents do, for fear of potential BTO delay in meeting the completion date, is to rent a home within the same zone near the school as an additional precaution just to fulfil the two-year window. The Ministry of Education (MOE) has shared, through its FAQ page, that if parents move to a residence within the same qualified zone, the 30-month minimum stay requirement can continue. This is also easier for the child, as he or she can get used to travelling to school right from the start.
4. If the declared home belongs to a caregiver (eg. grandparents, parent's sibling, etc.): Parents must declare that they're both working full-time (for 2022's exercise, the declaration window was June 27 to 29 July, 2022), and the child must live with the caregiver for at least 30 months from the start of the P1 registration exercise (ie. June 29, 2022). If the school goes into a balloting process, the caregiver's address will be marked as either 1-2km (if less than 2km) or outside of 2km. This means that for caregiver addresses, even if the home is less than 1km from the school, it will be grouped under the 1-2km zone.

If the condition is not met, the Ministry of Education reserves the right to transfer the child to another school with vacancies.

Princess Elizabeth Primary School's Phase 2C Oversubscription

One possible reason for PEPS's five to one oversubscription this year, besides the expanded under 1km and 1-2km zones, could be due to an increasing number of residences which would be completed within the next two-year-move-in window.

If we plot residences within 1km and 1-2km of the school on a map, we can clearly see the addition of many existing properties (such as HDB flats along Jurong East Avenue 1, Bukit Batok East Avenue 5 and 6, and Bukit Batok Central) and up-and-coming BTO projects north-west of the school.

The map below shows PEPS (red-pinned), with both the previous estimated 1km zone (black circle) and the new home-school distance boundary for <1km (red zone) and 1-2km (blue zone), based on OneMap's SchoolQuery.

We've also highlighted other primary schools (light green labels) in the neighbourhood.

For the residences, they're all BTO projects which:

1. Have recently been completed or at least are scheduled to be completed this year (such as West Edge, West Scape and Sky Vista), or
2. Are scheduled to be completed (and ready for move-in) within the 2-year window (January 2023-Dec 2024) - such as Plantation Village (estimated TOP March 2023) and Plantation Acres (estimated TOP December 2022).

Properties marked in white labels are within 1km of PEPS, such as Plantation Acres and Sky Vista.

Harmony Village, the new short-lease Community Care Apartments with 169 units in Bukit Batok, is ready for move-in sometime in mid-2024, which falls within the window. It is not entirely impossible for a primary school-going grandchild to stay with a grandparent (caregiver) here.

It should be stressed that not every apartment will have a primary school-going child next year, and not all units are family-friendly (eg. Two-room Flexi), but the additional 1,619 units within the 1km zone of PEPS this year is still quite significant.

Properties in dark green labels – such as Plantation Grove and West Edge – have some blocks within the 1km zone and some within the 1-2km zone. Combined, they add an additional 3,214 units.

With the new home-school distance rule, some residents there may choose to register for PEPS this year if their blocks are now within 1km of the school (instead of 1-2km).

[[nid:591091]]

Others may go with Jurong Primary, St Anthony's, Dazhong, Bukit View, Lianhua or Keming Primary, if they're closer or if they believe their chances are higher there instead.

Then there are the BTO projects in light blue labels to the northwest. These are your Tengah BTO projects which are estimated to be ready for moving in during the two-year window.

While all of them are within the 1-2km zone, they add up to an additional eligible 7,384 units, which is a huge number.

Despite not living <1km of PEPS, it is possible that some parents may still register for the school thanks to the allocation changes in the new rule.

Alternatively, some of them may opt for Shuqun or Jurong Primary to the south-west or St. Anthony's and Dazhong Primary to the north-east if they're <1km closer.

The additional BTO units, and their impending completion timelines within the next 2.5 years, might explain why we're seeing continued primary one oversubscription of PEPS in Phase 2C this year.

[[nid:580000]]

We should also not forget existing HDB flats which are now within 1km or 1-2km of PEPS due to the new home-school distance rule (when previously they were within 1-2km or outside of 2km respectively).

Most of the BTO flats are a mix of two-room Flexi, three-, four- and five-room flats, so these are family-friendly neighbourhoods with many primary school-going children over the next few years.

Plantation Grove and Plantation Grange in Tengah also include 3Gen flats, which may see a larger pool of primary school-going children living within multi-generational families.

The increased density of BTO flats in the Tengah area over the coming years will definitely add more pressure on primary school admissions, including PEPS.

The government seems to be aware of this, with a planned relocation of the merged Juying and Pioneer Primary School to the Plantation District of Tengah from Jan 2025.

Hopefully, by then, we'll see greater relief in primary one admissions in some of the more favoured schools in the neighbourhood.

This article was first published in 99.co.