Here's how much the new stress-test interest rates will affect home affordability
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PUBLISHED ONOctober 03, 2022 10:03 AM
Following the increase in interest rates, the authorities have introduced a few cooling measures effective today (Sept 30) to restrict borrowing by home buyers.
The main measure is the increase in the medium-term interest rate floor (also known as the stress-test interest rate) to compute the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR).
The TDSR limits the monthly debt obligation that you can take. It includes all types of loans, such as credit card debt, car loans and property loans. The TDSR is currently at 55 per cent.
Like the TDSR, the MSR limits the monthly loan amount that you can take, but it is only for the housing loan of an HDB flat or an Executive Condo. The MSR is currently at 30 per cent.
The stress-test interest rate for bank loans has now been raised from 3.5 per cent to four per cent per annum. At the same time, the stress-test interest rate of three per cent has been introduced for HDB loans.
These stress-test interest rates are not the actual interest rates of your home loan, so they don't translate to the interest you'll need to pay.
Instead, they are used to calculate the maximum loan amount that you can borrow. So with the increase in the stress-test interest rates, financing from the bank or HDB will be lower.
On top of that, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio limit for HDB loans has been decreased from 85 per cent to 80 per cent, reducing the amount you can borrow if you take an HDB loan.
This is to ensure prudence in borrowing for your property purchase, as interest rates are set to increase further in the coming months.
Reduced affordability
The impact of the two measures is that the home loan amount you can borrow will be lower, whether you're buying an HDB flat or a private property.
We illustrate how they will affect home affordability.
Buying an HDB flat
Let's say you and your partner have a combined income of $6,600. Without the three per cent stress-test, you could afford an HDB resale flat priced at $540,000. This is also the median price of an HDB resale flat in September 2022.
Assuming you take an HDB loan with a 25-year tenure, you may no longer be able to afford this flat due to the three per cent stress-test interest rate.
| Estimated maximum loan amount | Estimated maximum price of HDB flat | Estimated monthly instalment (at 2.6 per cent) | |
| Stress-test interest rate of 2.6 per cent | $436,441.00 | $545,551 | $1,980 |
| Stress-test interest rate of three per cent | $417,535.00 | $521,919 | $1,894 |
| Per cent change | -4.3 per cent | -4.3 per cent | -4.3 per cent |
This is unless you're eligible for resale grants, such as the Family Grant, Enhanced CPF Housing Grant and Proximity Housing Grant (PHG), to reduce the amount you need to borrow.
Otherwise, you will need to:
- Lower your debt obligations
- Increase your income
- Increase your downpayment
- Purchase a cheaper property
In this table, we break down how much your affordability is reduced based on the different monthly household income levels, if you're taking an HDB loan.
| Household monthly income | $4,000 | $6,000 | $8,000 | $10,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price of HDB flat you can previously afford (2.6 per cent interest rate)* | $330,638 | $495,956 | $661,274 | $826,593 |
| Price of HDB flat you can now afford (three per cent interest rate)* | $316,315 | $474,473 | $632,629 | $790,786 |
| Per cent change | -4.3 per cent | -4.3 per cent | -4.3 per cent | -4.3 per cent |
*Source: 99.co data team. Assumptions: HDB loan with a tenure of 25 years, LTV of 80 per cent and MSR of 30 per cent, without grants, and any other mortgage and debt obligations.
How much you can afford to pay for an HDB flat is even lower if you decide to take a bank loan.
| Household monthly income | $4,000 | $6,000 | $8,000 | $10,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price of HDB flat you can previously afford (3.5per cent interest rate)* | $319,601 | $479,403 | $639,203 | $799,004 |
| Price of HDB flat you can now afford (four per cent interest rate)* | $303,124 | $454,685 | $606,248 | $757,809 |
| Per cent change | -5.2 per cent | -5.2 per cent | -5.2 per cent | -5.2 per cent |
*Source: 99.co data team. Assumptions: Bank loan with a tenure of 25 years, LTV of 75 per cent and MSR of 30 per cent, without grants, and any other mortgage and debt obligations.
Buying a private property
Let's say you and your partner have a combined income of $8,500. Previously, you could afford a resale condo at $1,380,000. This is the median price of a resale condo in September 2022.
With the increased stress-test interest rate to four per cent for a bank loan, you would no longer be able to afford the resale condo with a 30-year home loan.
| Estimated maximum loan amount | Estimated maximum price of condo | Estimated monthly instalment (at 2.75 per cent) | |
| Stress-test interest rate of 3.5 per cent | $1,041,099 | $1,388,132 | $4,250 |
| Stress-test interest rate of four per cent | $979,231 | $1,305,641 | $3,998 |
| Per cent change | -5.9 per cent | -5.9 per cent | -5.9 per cent |
That is, unless you decide to do one of the actions above, such as lowering your debt obligations or purchasing a cheaper home.
Here's how much your affordability is reduced based on the different monthly household income levels, if you're buying a condo.
| Household monthly income | $14,000 | $16,000 | $18,000 | $20,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price of condo you can previously afford (3.5 per cent interest rate)* | $2,286,335 | $2,612,955 | $2,939,573 | $3,266,193 |
| Price of condo you can now afford (four per cent interest rate)* | $2,150,469 | $2,457,679 | $2,764,888 | $3,072,099 |
| Per cent change | -5.9 per cent | -5.9 per cent | -5.9 per cent | -5.9 per cent |
*Source: 99.co data team. Assumptions: Bank loan with a tenure of 30 years, LTV of 75 per cent and TDSR of 55 per cent, without any other mortgage and debt obligations.
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