Business @ AsiaOne

Spotting the winners

Industry experts discuss the greatest opportunities for retail investors today.

Thu, Sep 09, 2010
The Business Times

The topic: From your understanding of recent developments and likely future scenarios, what are the greatest opportunities for retail investors today, particularly in Singapore and the region? Why?

Michael Zink
Country Head & Citi Country Officer, Singapore
Citi Group

IN the current uncertain and volatile environment, risk-reward should be balanced between equity and bond asset classes. In the bonds space, spread expansion presents opportunities in selective high-grade corporate and high-yield bonds. Emerging market sovereigns, especially Asian sovereigns, also look attractive.

With Asia likely to lead global recovery in 2010, tactical investment opportunities are present in specifically North Asian equities where attractive valuations and strong capital inflows are supported by good macro fundamentals. The consumerism theme is also an area to look into, especially with the rise of the affluent middle class in emerging markets such as China and India.

Quality hedge funds are also a good tool to protect value given the likely volatile months ahead.

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Gary Harvey
CEO
Wealth Management Asia, ipac

THE financial crisis was all-encompassing and affected every market worldwide. Stocks and hard assets collapsed and at its worst, equity markets in Asia fell over 60 per cent. However, those who remained invested over this time have seen asset values recover from the lows of the early 2009. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific rebounded quickly and is leading the world out of the global financial crisis.

The region's economy was heavily reliant on export-related activity and since the financial crisis, Asia has turned to investment and domestic consumption, spending on infrastructure and focus on potential growth areas.

In my view, despite huge uncertainties, investors should still embrace risk and take a long-term view. As the global and Asian economies continue to recover, investors will continue to take advantage of opportunities in the markets.

With an eye on the potential setbacks that could take us by surprise, the best strategy one can adopt now is for investors to invest prudently with a long-term plan in mind but to expect ups and downs along the way.

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Joshua Yim
CEO
Achieve Group

SOME people buy stocks and some buy commodities while others invest in unit trusts or foreign properties, depending on their appetite for risk. Personally, I have found success in business but I have not found success in stocks.

I feel that business is still the best investment because it is within your control and it's exciting as it stretches your character much more than pure investments. In business, you have to take calculated risks, deal with problems, create a successful model, and try to replicate the system through franchises, for instance.

In my personal opinion, the value you create and your contribution to society through a business are much greater and more rewarding than making financial gains through speculating in the stock market.

Paul Gambles
Managing Partner
MBMG

THE greatest opportunities, now as always, are in pragmatically diversified assets in the hands of skilled managers such as Miton, Ruffer, etc. I look forward to the returns that retail investors can obtain from exposure at the right times to equities, fixed interest, commodities, property, currencies hedge strategies, alternative investments and cash, with an Asian bias right now. Trying to pick a single asset or even asset class remains, as always, a Motley fool's game.

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David Leong
Managing Director
PeopleWorldwide Consulting Pte Ltd

ASIA-PACIFIC property markets offer attractive investment opportunities and in booming economies like Singapore, being land-scarce and coupled with a slow climb in population growth, land is never enough. Hence, there is a relative attractiveness in the current property market.

Across the region there are many hot markets defined by their economic growth over the last three quarters. Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai and Beijing should top in terms of investment opportunities.

There should be pockets of opportunities and selective investments, especially in Reits of commercial and retail properties, should show strong yields.

However, investors should not throw the cautionary tales to the wind since Singapore is still vulnerable to global shocks and the impact is almost immediately felt. Singapore's open economy makes us extremely vulnerable to external factors - Singapore was the first Asian country to slip into recession when the financial crisis created global meltdown in 2008.

In a bad case scenario, if the G-20 nations contract because of their fiscal prudence and retrenchment, a global slowdown is inevitable. If a second concurrent unlikely event happens such as a double-dip recession hitting the US, Singapore will be badly hit. The American economy and outlook are unusually uncertain now.

This is a good time to strategically diversify into stable dividends stocks and hold them for the long term. Weak US dollar trends will further boost the stock market as investors shun the "safe haven" and diversify into risky assets to protect purchasing power.

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Dora Hoan
Group CEO
Best World International Ltd

I BELIEVE it is crucial to take the pulse of the global economy to be able to make good investments, particularly in a post-crisis world. The prospects for the region however remains bright, as Asian consumption has been leading the global recovery relative to the US, the EU and Japan. I foresee even more opportunities for Asian economic growth in the next 20 years as a result of strong inter-regional and intra-regional trade.

I see ample opportunities in properties, construction, food & beverage and health & lifestyle.

Global markets on the whole are bouncing back but are still in their early stages of fragile recovery. Retail players have demonstrated renewed confidence in investing but they are observed to be more selective and not industry-specific. I would advise investing incremental cash in stocks of companies that have done fairly well over the years, with proven track record that they can withstand minor and major dips in the economy.

Investors must get a feel for a company, their accomplishments, their visions, goals for expansion and direction towards the future. It is particularly important in these uncertain times to look at the business model's scalability and sustainability. Certainly, more than trending and speculations, retail investors will go where real values come into play.

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Andrea Ross
Managing Director (Singapore)
Robert Walters Singapore

FROM a human capital point of view, in the past 12 months, we have seen a diversion of hires away from structured products or alternative investments into the areas of foreign exchange, equities and commodities.

After the global economic crisis, the institutions we partner with have been focusing their revenue generation exposure in this part of the world (a successful career stint in Asia is almost obligatory for a future career in high office). While this could be an indication of market volatility from the Western economies, it could also signify a safer focus for investments in Asian markets.

In this current market condition, it pays for retail investors to be patient and Asia weighted dividend stocks at the right price could be a preferred choice of investment. Though the hiring market in Asia may be busy and our company has fared very well as a result, I have come to respect the fact that the stock market has a different life of its own.

Jackie Cheng
CEO
Hisaka Holdings Ltd

THE local technology/manufacturing sector was brought down to its lowest level after the burst of the dotcom bubble. Subsequently, we saw the emerging Taiwan and China suppliers offering large-volume, low-cost products. But the recent deep global financial crisis saw all sectors badly hit, especially the tech sector.

However, we have seen an improvement in the tech environment, and it is likely that the next good performer will emerge from the tech sector in the near future to the beginning of 2011. From what we understand, many of these companies are still relatively undervalued, and it seems like the cycle has just started afresh.

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David Low
CEO
Futuristic Store Fixtures Pte Ltd

WITH the West cleaning up their balance sheets and adjusting fiscal policies, we are expecting slow growth in the foreseeable future, while the East looks set to be the next big growth engine. Already we are witnessing funds being channelled into this region resulting in high liquidity. Apart from monetary flow, there is also an influx of foreign talents to the region enabling a transfer of knowledge in the corporate world and this in turn strengthens the economy as a whole.

All these factors create a golden opportunity for retail investors, but we have to tread carefully, for this region especially China is seemingly in uncharted waters. The stock market is relatively unstable at this point with bouts of ups and downs in short periods.

While a double-dip recession is unlikely to happen given the strong productivity growth, a correction may take place.

To seize the growth potential, one of the safest but greatest opportunities for retail investors would be mid- to long-term investments, with more weight on high-yield dividends equity and a portion in bonds. We know equity and bonds likely move in polar directions, so a weighted combination of these with a long-term sight will reap benefits from the region's growth.

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Lim Soon Hock
Managing Director
Plan-B Icag Pte Ltd

THE best opportunities in the region for retail investors are in companies, especially promising and under-valued SMEs, with their own intellectual property (IP). IP offers companies with significant opportunities for growth and returns, as have been shown by many of the Fortune 500 companies in the US. When such companies are professionally managed with systems and processes in place, as well as with proper observance of corporate governance, the full potential of the IP can be released.

Retail investors tend to put money in stable stocks, typically brick and mortar companies, to which they can relate. They are risk-averse to high-tech, high-risk companies and have a low appetite for their stocks.

However, for those willing to bet on and believe in IP, the returns can be potentiallly substantial, but they must do their homework, to understand the business and potential.

Liu Chunlin
CEO
K&C Protective Technologies Pte Ltd

GIVEN the uncertainty over the recovery in Europe and America with a looming possible double-dip recession, one cannot fault retail investors for being wary. At least we do not have the situation in some countries where even banks are at risks.

Investors here could at least sit tight with money in the bank in low-interest-bearing accounts. However erosion by inflation will drive some investors to park money in bonds. Stocks look unattractive but there will be investors waiting for market over-reaction in a dynamic market to pounce in with a good buy.

However if one takes a longer view, one might look at selected stocks in growth areas like commodities, water engineering and specialised manufacturing. Property investment at the moment with stratospheric prices looks risky to the retail investor, but if one is developing properties, there seems to be still some life to it.

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Teng Yeow Heng Michael
Managing Director
Corporate Turnaround Centre Pte Ltd

GOING forward, the Asian economy is going to continue to outperform Europe and the US. Currently, although there is a general consensus that Asia will be the attraction of the global and international funds, the reality is that the international funds are not rushing to invest in Asia yet, as these funds are currently quite risk-adverse and do not fully understand how Asia will perform in the event that the US and EU economies continue to remain feeble.

If the Asian economies can be seen to be de-coupled from the Western economies, then global funds will definitely rush in. In the event that the funds do come into Asia in a big way, retail investors should weigh in on Asian currencies such as the Singapore dollar, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee.

I see investments in the real estate as another good bet for retail investors as a hedge against inflation. An influx of people coming from the Western countries to find jobs in Asia will also increase the demand for housing. I expect the Asian central banks to increase the interest rates to cool the economies and prevent the build-up of any financial bubbles.

The stock markets may be a little more difficult to predict as they can move ahead of the economy and the Asian stock market has generally rallied quite a fair bit since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. If the global funds do come into Asia, some of the funds will certainly move into investments in stock markets.

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Tan Tiong Cheng
Chairman
Knight Frank Pte Ltd

Mr Tan Tiong Cheng, Chairman of Knight Frank Pte Ltd

BROADLY speaking, there are still opportunities for long-term capital growth in property. Over the last ten years, Singapore's total population and income - the main drivers of demand - have been increasing. Our total population (residents and non-residents) grew by 26 per cent, of which Singapore residents (citizens and permanent residents) increased by 15.6 per cent, and non-residents (foreigners), a hefty 72 per cent.

The trend looks set to continue. A recent Gallup poll showed that for the second year running, Singapore is the top immigration hot spot. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his National Day Message this year that "we will only bring in people who can contribute to Singapore, and work harder to integrate them into our society". In other words, as long as we remain economically relevant to the world, Singapore will continue to attract talent to live, work and play here.

An expanding population will have housing needs and an increasing income level can only enhance purchasing capacity. Property prices may move up or down, but, with our limited land mass, the long-term trend will be up.

This article was first published in The Business Times.

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