Ethnic tensions can certainly be expected to mount in the coming months as the nation's Jakarta-based political parties take advantage of local divisions in order to garner support in the run-up to next year's elections.

On March 1, six members of the organisation that led the independence struggle from 1976 until the Helsinki peace agreement with Jakarta in August 2005 were brutally murdered by a mob in the remote Atu Lintang area of the central highlands. Reports say that at about 1.30am local time, hundreds of people attacked the offices of the Aceh Transitional Commission (KPA) - previously known as the Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (GAM). Overwhelming police officers at the scene, the mob hacked the victims to death and torched the building.

Mr Ibrahim Syamsuddin, a spokesman for the former separatists, quickly demanded that the police 'uncover the truth' behind the incident. 'If they do not,' he declared, 'a new conflict will erupt in Aceh.'

He acknowledged that the incident had a very specific cause - a dispute between the KPA and a local union over control of lucrative revenues from a local bus station - but he also hinted at a wider problem. Many of the attackers, he said, were former members of pro-Jakarta militias blamed for much of the violence against separatists and their civilian sympathisers during the conflict with Jakarta.

Most of the inhabitants of Aceh's central highlands belong to ethnic minority groups that have long felt alienated from the Acehnese majority. Culturally and linguistically distinct from coastal Acehnese, these Gayo and Alas ethnic communities have traditionally had more in common with the inhabitants of Sumatran provinces further south.

During the decades of conflict, highlanders were known for their loyalty to the central government. In 2002, when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was the minister of security, he toured the area and thousands of residents turned out to greet him. Significantly, they also renewed a longstanding request to split from Aceh and form a separate province. Consisting of five of Aceh's regencies, it was to be called Leuser Antara after the Leuser National Park, a large area straddling the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra. Highland leaders continued to press their claim after the 2004 tsunami, which left highland areas untouched but resulted in 160,000 deaths in coastal areas.

In January this year, the House of Representatives (DPR) in Jakarta unanimously recommended the creation of eight new provinces, including Aceh Leuser Antara and Aceh Barat Selatan. Like the former, the latter (in south-west Aceh) includes several minority ethnic communities. The legislative endorsement, however, was not legally binding on the Aceh administration.

Proponents of the partition argue that the move is necessary to improve the welfare of the inhabitants of the regencies concerned. But while the relevant areas are admittedly underdeveloped, the Jakarta-based parties have a more important reason for supporting the creation of the new provinces.

Now that former rebels have been allowed to participate fully in the political process, nationalist groups such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) stand to lose considerable support in Aceh during next year's elections. Campaigning in favour of the division of the province gives such parties a platform that should guarantee them votes in at least some areas.

'They (the political parties in Jakarta) are simply taking advantage of the issue,' argued political analyst Fajran Zain of the Aceh Institute.

Aceh Governor Irwandi Yusuf, a former GAM separatist leader elected in 2006, is strongly opposed to the dismemberment of his province. He argues - with some justification - that splitting up Aceh goes against both the spirit and the letter of the 2005 Helsinki Accord.

While the governor may have neither the means nor the desire to use force to discourage local leaders from pressing their demand, he is not solely in control of the situation.

The KPA is split into various factions. With unemployment and poverty remaining high throughout the province, many former separatists and militia members may be inclined to take out their frustrations on each other.

Some groups have already turned to gang warfare. Reports say that the main road connecting the provincial capital of Banda Aceh with Medan (capital of North Sumatra) has seen an increase in armed robbery and extortion.

Frustration with the slow implementation of the Helsinki Accord has also angered many former GAM fighters. The Aceh Reintegration Agency, tasked with handing out money and land to help ex-combatants and conflict victims begin a new life, has yet to complete its task. Local officials blame insufficient financial support from Jakarta.

Meanwhile, attempts to heal the wounds of the past by establishing a truth and reconciliation commission have been delayed by a constitutional court ruling that annulled the 2006 truth and reconciliation law.

'Politically motivated violence is certainly possible,' noted Dr Achmad Humam Hamid, a sociologist at Syiah Kuala University in the provincial capital Banda Aceh. He hastened to add, however, that he does not believe it would become widespread.

Mr Fajran argued that much would depend on how the governor handled the situation.

'Mr Irwandi should talk to the highland leaders personally instead of making statements through the media,' he said.

Speaking to The Straits Times last week, Dr Humam took heart from the fact that there did not appear to be any specific link between the recent violence in Atu Lintang and local demands for the establishment of a new province.

'In the end,' he declared, 'Aceh will survive.'

bruceg@sph.com.sg