Reforms needed to beat political deadlock in Thailand

THAILAND - Thailand's political brinkmanship knows no bounds. What began two months ago as a street protest in Bangkok against a blanket amnesty that would have absolved former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has snowballed into a national crisis which may dominate the local scene for much of 2014.

As the government of caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, stands its ground and refuses to resign to make way for an interim governing arrangement as demanded by the protesters, the ongoing political deadlock will generate more tension ahead of the promulgated election next month.

The election itself has become a time bomb. More turmoil can be expected, whether the polls take place as scheduled or not. The protesters insist on immediate political reforms and a poll postponement, and the opposition Democrat Party's boycott will deprive the winners of post-election legitimacy.

On the other hand, the governing coalition parties are geared up for election victory and a return to power. Ms Yingluck has promised a year-long reform process before another election is held next year. This murky environment is likely to get worse before it improves.

Thailand clearly needs to find a new balance between competing sources of political legitimacy in its electoral democracy.

The crisis is reminiscent of the situation five years ago when anti- Thaksin demonstrators protested against a different proxy government of Thaksin.

It was capped by the occupation of Bangkok's main international airport and the Constitutional Court's dissolution of the ruling party. Back then, the brinkmanship succeeded in enabling the opposing Democrat Party to take power for the next 21/2 years until Thaksin's Puea Thai party, under Ms Yingluck, reclaimed the electoral mandate in the July 2011 polls.

Echoing their demands five years ago, the anti-government protesters this time want to root out "the Thaksin regime" once and for all by pledging to practically shut down the capital from Jan 13. They want to see the back of Ms Yingluck or force her government to respond and perhaps overreact to the street demonstrations.

Protesters' demands

Their leader, Suthep Thuagsuban, a veteran Democrat Party MP who resigned to spearhead the protests under the People's Democratic Reform Committee, has publicly indicated that the protesters' objective is to replace Ms Yingluck with a "people's assembly" and an interim government that would oversee a period of political reforms.

Suthep's anti-government protesters are fed up with the electoral system and the patronage-driven money politics that greases and props up Thailand's electoral democracy.

Some unscrupulous politicians buy their way through the polls and end up recouping their electoral investments with a hefty profit through corruption and graft at public expense. They then lose legitimacy and are dislodged, typically through military putsches, and the vicious circle begins again with a new Constitution and new polls.

Suthep's supporters, comprising roughly two-fifths of the active electorate, want to revamp the electoral system in favour of alternative sources of integrity and what they see as moral authority. They have been calling for "good people" to run the government and chart Thailand's future course.

But while they are against the amnesty Bill that would have allowed Thaksin back in Thailand, Suthep and his mostly middle-class supporters in Bangkok, Democrat strongholds in the south, and urban provincial areas elsewhere have been adamant about keeping the Senate half-appointed instead of fully elected as the government has proposed.

This conflict over the Senate has added fuel to the fire. The protesters want half of the Senate members to be appointed so that they can act as check and balance on the pro-Thaksin government.

For the protesters, elections are more part of the problem than the answer in Thailand because polls consistently return largely the same set of politicians to power.

The electoral system therefore has to be fixed to bring about a newly calibrated democratic system that preserves minority interests and marginalises crooked politicians. Thailand is thus going through a critical test of its electoral democracy.

At issue is whether democracy can be made to take a rest, undergo an overhaul, and return for better democratic results. Making democracy better by suspending it for a while is the basis of Suthep's movement. The proponents of electoral democracy, such as it is, want the polls to proceed and for all democratic shortcomings to be fixed within the system.

Thaksin is the main beneficiary of the current electoral system because his party has won repeatedly. This is the price the proponents of electoral democracy are willing to pay. But their opponents on Suthep's side will not countenance another virtual Thaksin triumph at the polls.

Military inclination

Thailand is stuck.

Its current deadlock may be undone by outside interventions from the military or constitutional watchdogs such as the Anti-Corruption Commission, the Election Commission and the Constitutional Court.

The military is reluctant to seize power again after its last foray in September 2006 because it would face difficulty forming an interim government. It would lack international legitimacy and risk an anti-coup backlash from the masses.

Close to retirement, the top generals also do not want blood on their hands as they eye a comfortable life after stepping down.

The watchdog agencies are in the limelight because they have taken politically decisive moves in the recent past and could do so again in the near term.

No other way out

The last two months are a prelude to a tough year ahead.

Those who are elected to power need to show more integrity and policymaking capability. They need to gain the faith and trust of voters and avoid the abuse of power from majority rule.

The committees and inner workings of the legislature need to be more adept and independent, not mere extensions of the executive branch.

Reforms are certainly needed. But the best way to beat Thaksin is to win elections.

With the Democrat Party boycotting the elections, the nation's smaller political parties are needed to level the playing field and dilute the dominance of Thaksin's political vehicle. The latter's monopoly of electoral power is the root cause of endless protests in recent years.

This political reform process will take years to achieve but it is ultimately Thailand's democratic road ahead. There is no alternative because there is no sustainable exit from electoral democracy in Thailand.

stopinion@sph.com.sg

The writer teaches international political economy and directs the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

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