Russia takes its time as Ukraine struggles

LONDON - Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko meets his Russian counterpart, Mr Vladimir Putin, today for the first substantial face-to-face negotiations since the crisis between the two neighbours erupted earlier this year.

However, diplomats who brokered the meeting privately acknowledge that its only realistic outcome would be some agreement to contain the bloodshed.

The higher objective of achieving a negotiated settlement in Ukraine remains beyond grasp, at least as long as Mr Putin continues to believe that he holds the initiative and is prepared to play a waiting game while Ukraine's economy and government buckle under the pressure.

European governments are worried that the Ukraine conflict, now in its sixth month, is dangerously escalating beyond anyone's control.

Ukraine is accusing Russia of an outright invasion after more than 200 heavy Russian lorries described as a "humanitarian convoy" forced their way into Ukrainian territory last week without permission from the country's government, ostensibly in order to relieve besieged ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

In response, the Ukrainian government staged a massive show of military force at an independence day parade during the past weekend.

And tempers were frayed even further by a decision of the Russian rebels to parade Ukrainian prisoners under their detention.

The sight of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers being dragged through the streets of rebel towns, where they were spat upon, intensified the pressure on President Poroshenko to crush the rebellion.

Fearing that this would transform what was hitherto a proxy conflict into a full-fledged war in the heart of Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the continent's most influential leader, worked hard to broker today's meeting in the Belarussian capital of Minsk.

The hope is that the presence at the summit of not only presidents Putin and Poroshenko, but also of the leaders of Kazakhstan and Belarus, with whom Russia has close relations, may persuade participants to talk about economic cooperation rather than military confrontation.

Ms Catherine Ashton, the EU's foreign policy chief, is also on hand.

A potential deal, teased out by Dr Merkel in private talks over the past week, is straightforward enough.

Ukraine has offered to grant ethnic Russians a large measure of local autonomy, provided they lay down their arms immediately.

In return, Russia would be expected to stop championing the rebels' cause and to lift its economic embargo on Ukraine.

Both neighbours would then be invited to renew their trade talks with the European Union.

But obstacles to such a comprehensive deal remain formidable.

First, it is not obvious that the rebels, who were cornered by the Ukrainian military last week but now appear to have regained the initiative, are in any mood to give up the fight.

Nor is it easy for Mr Poroshenko to offer concessions, particularly with his standing with voters nose-diving just months after his election.

But the biggest stumbling blocks to any deal are Mr Putin's calculations.

In ordering his "humanitarian convoy" of lorries to push through into Ukrainian territory regardless of the danger that it may encounter armed opposition, Mr Putin not only revealed his disdain for Western threats against Russia but also his long-term strategy.

According to International Red Cross inspectors, many of the lorries in the convoy were empty. Their presence on Ukrainian territory was merely designed to show that Mr Putin could assert his wish to have direct corridors to ethnic Russian rebels inside Ukraine and will not allow them to be surrounded.

Having now accomplished this mission, there is no reason for Mr Putin to compromise, since keeping the Ukraine weak and divided is Russia's long-term objective.

Mr Putin also knows that the longer he waits, the weaker Ukraine gets as the conflict takes its toll on the country's ravaged economy.

Last week, Ukrainian Economy Minister Pavel Sheremeta handed in his resignation, citing unhappiness with the pace of reform.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatskenyuk, another economist, has warned that national economy is projected to contract by at least 6 per cent this year.

It is likely that upon his return from today's summit, Mr Poroshenko will dismiss his entire Cabinet.

But it is equally likely that its successors won't prove to be any better at managing the economy.

Russia is also suffering as a result of Western-led economic sanctions, but the Russians have deeper pockets and resources, so Mr Putin is content to let the Ukrainian suffer, particularly since the onset of winter will increase Ukraine's need for energy resources which Russia currently blocks.

At best, therefore, the summit today may take the sting out of the current tensions over Russia's "humanitarian" lorries by making provisions for their withdrawal.

But the turmoil in Ukraine will rumble on as long as Russia's leaders believe that time works to their advantage.

jonathan.eyal@gmail.com

Mr Putin also knows that the longer he waits, the weaker Ukraine gets as the conflict takes its toll on the country's ravaged economy.

This article was first published on August 26, 2014.
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