In show of strength, Putin grants mercy to foes

MOSCOW - Boosted by successes on the domestic and international scene, President Vladimir Putin pardoned Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky and punk band Pussy Riot members in a display of strength seen as showing he is Russia's undisputed master.

After a rocky start to his third Kremlin term in 2012, Putin has enjoyed a triumphant end to 2013, with Moscow inspiring a deal that halted US air strikes on Syria and trumping Ukraine's pro-EU protest movement with a bailout package.

Putin's 2012 return to the Kremlin was marred by the biggest rallies against his rule but these have now died down and fiery protest leader Alexei Navalny is effectively sidelined - for the moment - after being given a suspended sentence in a fraud case.

In allowing the freedom of the highest-profile jailed opponents of his rule, Putin may have had in mind Russia's image abroad as it prepares to host the Winter Olympic Games and chair the G8 in 2014.

But like a mediaeval English monarch granting mercy with a flick of the finger or a Roman Emperor sparing the life of a slave gladiator, the releases are above all viewed as a display of sheer power by an autocratic ruler.

"It looks like an act of monarchical mercy offered by Putin at the very moment when he is celebrating foreign policy successes and does not fear this will be seen as a weakness," said Nikolai Petrov, professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.

"Putin feels like victor and in this way is able to demonstrate his supreme power," Petrov added.

Putin's triumphant year-end

The year could hardly have ended better for Putin.

Russia seized the initiative in the Syrian conflict with a proposal to rid the regime of its chemical weapons which warded off the threat of US air strikes against President Bashar al-Assad and allowed Moscow to present itself as a peacemaker.

Contrary to many expectations at the end of 2012, its ally Assad remains in power in Damascus and the Kremlin has every hope of retaining its influence when the warring sides sit down for a peace conference in January.

The deal on the Iranian nuclear programme agreed under new President Hassan Rouhani has also removed the threat of military strikes against Tehran, something Russia has long bitterly opposed.

The pro-EU protests in Kiev appeared to spell trouble for the Kremlin's influence over Ukraine but the protest movement lost much of its momentum since Putin stepped in last week with a multi-billion dollar bailout deal.

Meanwhile after its winter of glory in 2011-2012, the Russian protest movement is floundering and lacking any kind of figurehead capable of offering a serious challenge to Putin nationwide.

"One year ago it seemed that the regime was very weak. But now it seems solid," said Petrov. "Putin needed to pardon Khodorkovsky as an acknowledgement of his right to punish and show mercy."

Seen by some as a potential opposition leader, Khodorkovsky is now in exile in Germany and vowed not to get involved in politics.

"Putin is sure, like never before, of his own strength," said Carnegie Moscow Centre analyst Alexei Malashenko. "He has shown his unpredictability, which in itself is a sign of strength," he said in a column for the Moscow Echo Radio.

Economic worries on road to 2018

Yet Putin would be mistaken to slip into a false sense of security as he continues on the long road towards Russia's 2018 presidential elections which could yet see him seek a fourth term up to 2024.

Russia's economy is increasingly showing signs of a chronic malaise of low growth brought on not by outside factors but Putin's failure to wean the country off oil and gas, help private business and reform the legal system.

Growth is forecast to have been just 1.4 per cent this year.

"For the moment we are in stagnation and, unfortunately, this is the reality. I don't see the government taking any kind of decisive measures. We see that these last two years have been lost," former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said Monday, quoted by the state RIA Novosti news agency.

Putin's ambitions seem to be long-term: at his mammoth end-of-year conference he declined to speculate about a successor, saying: "I have said nothing and there is nothing to say."

But a survey by independent pollster Levada Centre found this month that 31 per cent of Russians do not support Putin's actions as president, the highest level in 12 years.