It is unlikely that Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501 exploded in mid-air, air crash experts say, as the first pieces of debris were spotted and some bodies recovered.
Chances are that the plane hit the Java Sea intact and broke up upon impact before plunging to the ocean floor.
The wreckage of the Airbus 320-200 was found more than 48 hours after the ill-fated flight, which left Surabaya for Singapore on Sunday morning with 162 people on board, went missing.
Search teams reported seeing some bodies intact.
An air force plane reportedly spotted a shadow of what looked like a plane on the seabed.
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What is beleived to be wreckage from crashed AirAsia flight QZ8501 in the Java Sea is pictured in this underwater photograph.
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The tail of a crashed AirAsia jet has been found, Indonesia's search and rescue agency said on Wednesday.
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It was found on the sea bed about 30 km (20 miles) from the plane's last known location.
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The discovery on the seabed could mark a breakthrough in the search as the tail of a plane usually houses the "black box" flight data recorders.
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Flight QZ8501 vanished from radar screens over the northern Java Sea on Dec 28.
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Despite a huge recovery operation assisted by various countries, progress has been patchy with poor weather conditions hampering the search.
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A member of an Indonesian search and rescue team scans the sea for debris from AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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Personal effects from passengers recovered from search operations in the Java Sea of AirAsia flight QZ8501 are displayed upon arrival at Juanda military airport in Surabaya on January 7, 2015.
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Indonesian military personnel carry coffins of victims recovered from the ill-fated Malaysian air carrier AirAsia flight QZ8501, upon their arrival at the military airbase in Surabaya, East Java on December 31, 2014.
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Indonesian Search and Rescue crews unload one of two bodies of AirAsia passengers recovered from sea at the airport in Pangkalan Bun, central Kalimantan.
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Search and rescue team members run as they carry the dead body of a passenger onboard AirAsia flight QZ8501 at Iskandar airbase in Pangkalan Bun, Indonesia, December 31, 2014.
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Indonesian President Joko Widodo (L) standing in the cockpit of an Air force aircraft Hercules C-130 during the search and locate (SAL) operation for missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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Crew member of an Indonesian Maritime Surveillance plane says a prayer before a search mission to look for AirAsia's Flight QZ8501 in Pangkal Pinang.
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Members of the Indonesia marines unload their diving equipment as they arrive at Pangkalan Bun air base in Central Kalimantan.
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A family member of passengers onboard the missing Malaysian air carrier AirAsia flight QZ8501, reacts after seeing an unidentified floating dead body during a search and rescue mission.
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An Indonesian warship recovered more than 40 bodies from the sea Tuesday in the search for the AirAsia jet, a navy spokesman told AFP.
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"Based on the navy radio, it has been reported that the warship Bung Tomo has retrieved 40 bodies and the number is growing. They are very busy now," Manahan Simorangkir said.
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Earlier, Indonesia's media outlets reported that Indonesian warship KRI Bung Tomo has found six bodies, and retrieved three, citing local broadcaster TV One.
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Relatives of the 162 people missing on the plane hugged each other and burst into tears in Surabaya, where the missing Indonesia AirAsia flight QZ8501 plane departed from, as they watched footage showing a body floating in the sea on a television feed of a press conference in Jakarta.
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AirAsia Indonesia president director Sunu Widiyatmoko said the airline would ready a 180-seat Airbus 320 for families of the missing AirAsia passengers on Wednesday.
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"This is aimed at keeping the families informed in detail about the joint search operation being conducted," he told journalists at the AirAsia Crisis Center at Terminal II of Juanda International Airport in Surabaya on Tuesday.
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"The aircraft carrying the passengers' families will fly around the search location before returning to Surabaya," he said.
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On Tuesday, the Transportation Ministry's acting director general of air transportation, Djoko Murjatmodjo, confirmed that wreckage discovered in Pangkalan Bun, Central Kalimantan, was from AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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"It has been confirmed that it is debris from an aircraft bearing red and white colors," Djoko said, citing that the debris had been found by the ministry's rescue team.
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"The recovery process will now be centered on the debris location, in coordination with Basarnas [National Search and Rescue Agency]," he said.
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State airport operator PT Angkasa Pura (AP) I president director Tomi Sutomo said the flight transporting the AirAsia passengers' families would be coordinated with Basarnas.
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"We don't want to disrupt the ongoing search operation, so we will hand over the technical matters of the flight to Basarnas," said Tomi.
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Air Force Hercules C130 co-pilot Lt. Tri Wibowo, who flew on Tuesday over waters near Pangkalan Bun in Central Kalimantan in the search for missing AirAsia flight QZ8501, said that he saw dozens of floating bodies as well as bags and aircraft debris.
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"We thought that the passengers were still alive and waved at us for help. But when we approached closer [we saw] they were already dead," said Tri as quoted by kompas.com.
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Tri and the team scoured the area at around 11 am.
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The Transportation Ministry earlier confirmed that white and red debris found near Pangkalan Bun belonged to the ill-fated flight, which vanished on Sunday en route to Singapore from Indonesia's second-biggest city of Surabaya in East Java.
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The aircraft was carrying 162 people.
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Basarnas reported that it had found 10 pieces of debris during its search for the ill-fated AirAsia Indonesia aircraft southwest of Pangkalan Bun in Central Kalimantan.
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Basarnas spokesman M. Yusuf Latif said on Tuesday that a CN maritime patrol aircraft from the Indonesian Air Force first discovered the debris during a search on Tuesday morning.
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"We just searched [the location] until 11 am. So, according to estimations, the debris was seen at 10:15 a.m.," he told reporters at the agency's headquarters in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta.
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The location of the debris matched information from two fishermen in Pangkalan Bun who said that they heard a thud and saw explosions on Sunday morning, Yusuf said.
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Family members of passengers onboard missing Malaysian air carrier AirAsia flight QZ8501 pray together while waiting for a briefing inside the crisis-centre set up at Juanda International Airport in Surabaya on Dec 30, 2014.
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Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency chief said Tuesday that just three bodies had been recovered so far in the search for the AirAsia plane which crashed in the Java Sea, after another official said 40 had been found.
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"Today we evacuated three bodies and they are now in the warship Bung Tomo," Bambang Soelistyo told a news conference in Jakarta, adding that they were two females and one male.
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Some of the debris that was found by search and rescue aircraft.
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Navy spokesman Manahan Simorangkir told AFP earlier that according to naval radio a warship had recovered more than 40 bodies from the sea. But he later said that report was a miscommunication by his staff.
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The Airbus A320-200 carrying 162 people crashed Sunday en route from Indonesia's second largest city Surabaya to Singapore, with wreckage recovered near its last known location.
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Government security officials carry of a family member of passengers onboard AirAsia flight QZ8501 after she collapsed at a waiting area in Juanda International Airport, Surabaya, Dec 30, 2014.
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Members of the Indonesian air force show items retrieved from the Java sea during search and rescue operations for the missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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A member of the Indonesian air force carries an item retrieved from the Java sea during search and rescue operations for the missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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Members of the Indonesian air force carry items retrieved from the Java sea during search and rescue operations for the missing AirAsia flight QZ8501.
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A family member of passengers onboard the missing Malaysian air carrier AirAsia flight QZ8501 receives medical assistance after watching news reports showing an unidentified body floating in the Java sea.
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Indonesian President Joko Widodo said the primary focus of the search mission now was to retrieve the bodies of the remaining passengers and crew members of the doomed Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501
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Stormy weather Wednesday forced Indonesian rescuers to suspend their search for the bodies of those on AirAsia's Flight QZ8501
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Indonesian students pray for victims of the missing AirAsia flight QZ8501 in Tangeran
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A message board has been set up at the Changi Airport for the public to express their thoughts to families and friends of the passengers aboard the ill-fated Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501.
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As the operations move from search and locate, to search and recovery, it would take weeks before enough pieces of wreckage and human remains are recovered for the authorities and investigators to determine how and why the crash happened.
Critical to this is finding the plane's black boxes which record conversations in the cockpit and preserve data on the position and speed of the aircraft.
But looking at what is known so far, there are several possibilities on what could have happened.
Retired United States airline pilot John Cox, who runs his own consultancy, said: "I am now seeing doors and reports of a large section located on the sea floor which are indicators, but not conclusive evidence, that the plane was in one piece when it hit the ocean.
"If the wingtips, nose and tail are found in the same area, then it will be conclusive that the plane was intact upon impact with the water."
Mr Jacques Astre, president of industry consultancy International Aviation Safety Solution, said: "The fact that the debris field is relatively small would suggest the aircraft broke up upon impact with the sea and not in flight."
If some bodies are found intact, it would suggest the same, said Mr H.R. Mohandas, a former pilot and now programme head for the diploma in aviation management at Republic Polytechnic.
Mr Astre added: "The close proximity of the debris field to its last known location also suggests the aircraft descended fairly quickly."
The area is about 10km from the aircraft's last known location over the Java Sea.
The first sign of trouble came about 45 minutes after the plane left Surabaya at 5.30am - an hour behind Singapore time - for the two-hour sector. At 6.12am, the cockpit requested permission from the Jakarta air traffic control to turn left to avoid a storm, which is common procedure when pilots encounter rough weather.
The pilot then asked to take the plane higher to 38,000 feet from its position at 32,000 feet, without explaining why.
The air traffic control decided to allow the plane to increase its height but only to 34,000 feet, because at that time another AirAsia flight was flying at 38,000 feet.
But when this was communicated to the pilot of QZ8501, there was no response from the cockpit.
Data from Indonesia's meteorological agency showed slight rain in the Belitung and Pontianak areas when the plane was estimated to be flying through the vicinity, with thick cumulonimbus clouds as high as 45,000 feet.
Such clouds can produce lightning and other dangerous weather conditions, such as gusts, hail and occasional tornadoes.
Mr Mark D. Martin, founder and chief executive officer of Martin Consulting, said: "In the unfortunate event of entering a cumulonimbus cloud at flight levels between 31,000 feet and 38,000 feet, it is common to see heavy updrafts and downdrafts, icing on control surfaces which can freeze corrective pilot actions, aggressive aircraft manoeuvres and the aircraft dramatically lose altitude in excess of 5,000 feet per minute."
A similar incident had occurred in June 2009 when Air France Flight AF447 plunged into the Atlantic Ocean, leaving no survivors, during a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris.
Official investigations concluded that the aircraft crashed after pilots failed to react correctly to temporary inconsistencies between air speed measurements.
This was likely due to ice crystals blocking the plane's pitot tubes, which measure air speed.
Mr Mohandas said: "It is possible that something similar happened to Flight QZ8501. In their attempt to avoid extreme weather conditions, the pilots could have taken some actions, including possibly initiating a climb which requires more power.
"This coupled with adverse weather conditions, including turbulence, and possibly the formation of ice on the surface of the aircraft at high altitude, could have disengaged the plane's auto-pilot systems."
He said: "With little or no visibility and without auto pilot, you don't know what's in front of you and the crew could have become disorientated. Under such circumstances, the plane could have gone into an uncontrolled descent."
With the wreckage found, experts can start piecing together the final moments of Flight QZ8501. To the relatives of those who perished, this may bring a sense of closure but, perhaps, no relief from the pain.
karam@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on December 31, 2014.
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