Indonesia Elections 2014: Rising fears that results may lead to unwieldy coalition

Indonesia Elections 2014: Rising fears that results may lead to unwieldy coalition

INDONESIA - In the previous administration, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono formed a six-party ruling coalition which turned out to be unwieldy, with members often bickering over tough policies.

But the loose grouping also meant that he faced fewer parties in the opposition.

With the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) garnering about 19 per cent of votes in the general election - similar to the result that Dr Yudhoyono's Democratic Party got in 2009 - the question is, will the PDI-P do what the Democrats did?

Yesterday's election will see 10 parties enter Parliament, one more than at present, after they all met the raised threshold of 3.5 per cent of the popular vote needed to take up seats.

So even as the Golkar party's Mr Aburizal Bakrie and Gerindra's Mr Prabowo Subianto say they will contest the July 9 presidential election against the PDI-P's Mr Joko Widodo, neither has excluded the possibility of joining a coalition to run the country if he loses.

"A coalition needs to be formed in Parliament, so that the executive can run smoothly. In other words, the president gets adequate support," Mr Bakrie told reporters yesterday.

Mr Prabowo, making similar remarks, said: "I've always said, our nation's problems are complex. Gerindra wants to be part of the solution and progress so we want to work with whoever."

Asked if this included the PDI-P, he replied: "Why not? ...We should work with anyone who works for the nation's good."

A party, or an alliance of parties, needs at least 25 per cent of the total votes before it can put up a presidential candidate. Alternatively, it needs at least 20 per cent of MPs in the 560-seat national Parliament to do so.

The top three parties, PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra, are all expected to team up easily with smaller parties to field a presidential candidate, though it is unclear whether the Democratic Party will be able to do so.

PDI-P won 19 per cent of the total votes based on quick counts, lower than its target of 27 per cent.

The weaker result opens up the possibility that former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P might need to rope in more partners, which would then make the ruling coalition unwieldy. This also goes against the PDI-P's earlier plan of bringing in as few as two other parties into a coalition.

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Indonesia's Parliament has become a major powerhouse following the fall of then President Suharto in 1998. In recent years, MPs have on occasion blocked the government's policies and scuttled key programmes.

"The current Parliament and the next will be similar. They will be difficult to manage," said Professor Maswadi Rauf of the University of Indonesia.

Having more coalition partners may lead to more horse-trading in order to push through tough policies, or raise the spectre of policy logjam as happened with the Yudhoyono administration.

His Democrats, who garnered 20.8 per cent of total votes in 2009, roped in five other parties then to control some 75 per cent of seats in the House. But some coalition partners often blocked measures like raising the price of subsidised fuel.

PDI-P, according to quick counts yesterday, polled the highest percentage of votes - about 19 per cent.

Golkar, the party of Mr Suharto, was second, with around 15 per cent, slightly higher than its 14.5 per cent in the 2009 election.

But Golkar may end up with more seats in Parliament than the PDI-P because most of its votes came from outside the most populous Java island, where a party must have a higher number of popular votes in order to get a seat.

Gerindra surged to third place with some 12 per cent of the votes, moving up from eighth position in 2009.

Former general Prabowo Subianto's six-year-old party, which got only 4.5 per cent of the votes previously, is seen as the biggest winner in yesterday's polls.

Mr Aryo Djojohadikusumo, Mr Prabowo's nephew who also contested in the election, told The Straits Times: "The almost tripling of vote share means voters realise Gerindra has a clear platform."

Senior Golkar figure Luhut Panjaitan, a former trade minister, last month urged parties not to get too bogged down by the presidential election in July.

They should think instead about how the next administration can get a majority in Parliament in order to take tough measures like slashing subsidies, he said.

zubaidah@sph.com.sg

wahyudis@sph.com.sg

Additional reporting by Reme Ahmad

This article was published on April 10 in The Straits Times.

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