10 outrageous predictions for 2017

This year, as Denmark's Saxo Bank said, is already one where reality is stranger than the most outrageous calls.

In a yearly tradition, it nevertheless tries to come up with 10 far-out things that might shock the market next year.

As Saxo's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen said: "The one idea you 'hate' the most has a tendency to come through. Let's face it - no one wanted to buy emerging-market Brazil last year."

Here's a summarised version.

1. China's GDP growth swells to 8 per cent, SHCOMP to 5,000

"Through massive stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, and opening up capital markets even more, the country successfully steers a transition to consumption-intensive growth surpassing current expectations and reaching 8 per cent in 2017."

2. Desperate Fed fixes 10-year Treasury yield at 1.5 per cent

"As dollar and US interest rates rise in increasingly painful fashion in 2017 in anticipation of Trump-initiated tax cuts and fiscal stimulus, the Federal Reserve feels forced to step in and provide a backstop to avoid a train wreck in global asset prices and the global economy.

"Effectively, it's the introduction of QE4, later known as QE Endless."

3. High-yield default rate exceeds 25 per cent

"A pullback from the reach for yield will see interest rates rise further globally, excluding Japan. This means yield curves steepen dramatically and the shaky trillions of corporate debt are in a world of hurt."

4. Brexit never happens

"As the negotiations drag on, the European Union (EU) realises that it is stronger with the UK under its umbrella than without, and indicates a willingness to make a key concession or two on immigration and the UK's financial services under its existing special status within the EU.

By the time the Article 50 invocation vote is put before Parliament, it is turned down in favour of the new deal that goes far beyond former prime minister David Cameron's original treaty change requests."

5. Copper corrects to US$1.25/lb

"Into 2017, the market will begin to realise that the new president will struggle to deliver the promised investments and the expected increase in copper demand fails to materialise."

6. Huge gains for Bitcoin

"A Trump spending binge propels dollar sky-high forcing emerging markets to seek alternatives, creating ideal conditions for Bitcoin to test US$2,000."

7. US healthcare bubble pops

"The initial relief rally in healthcare stocks just after Trump's victory will quickly fade in 2017 as investors realise that his administration will not go easy on the healthcare system but will instead launch sweeping reforms of the unproductive and expensive US healthcare system.

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF will plunge 50 per cent to US$35."

8. Mexico peso soars especially against the Canadian dollar

"The market has drastically overestimated Donald Trump's true intention or even ability to crack down on trade with Mexico, allowing the beaten-down peso to surge, especially as Trump's stimulus is seen as a boon to Mexico's economy, which is highly dependent on US demand.

"Meanwhile, the US' neighbour to the north suffers as higher interest rates initiate a credit crunch in one of the world's most overleveraged private sectors."

9. Italian banks rally more than 100 per cent

"The EU instructs the European Central Bank to issue a guarantee for all of the too-big-to-fail European banks."

10. EU stimulates growth with mutual Euro bonds

"Facing a completely new political landscape in Europe, traditional political parties have a change of heart and acknowledge that they have not done enough to revive the economy and abandon their austerity programmes."

haoxiang@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on December 19, 2016.
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