Trump's chance of victory skyrockets in betting exchanges, online market


Online trading platform PredictIt and bookermaker Paddy Power showed a massive reversal of fortune for the US presidential candidates Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton Tuesday night, with the New York businessman's chances of taking the White House skyrocketing on both.

Trump stunned many political experts, showing a slight edge on Clinton in several swing states after voting had ended in more than two-thirds of the 50 US states.

Paddy Power put Trump's chance of victory at 83.3 per cent Tuesday and Clinton's at 22.2 per cent. The two had been in essentially opposite positions on Tuesday morning.

The Irish bookmaker stands to take a US$4 million (S$5.55 million) hit if Trump wins, said Paddy Power spokesman Feilim Mac An Iomaire, who said the dramatic reversal in odds was reminiscent of what it saw in the "Brexit" vote for Britain to leave the European Union. "You could say it's deja vu again," said Mac An Iomaire."Much like Brexit, it looked to be following the odds early on before a dramatic turnaround." While opinion polls went back and forth leading into Britain's June 23 referendum on whether or not to remain in the EU, betting odds favoured the "remain" campaign. Britons voted to leave by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

A similar trajectory played out on the online trading platform PredictIt, which was launched in 2014 and is jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc.

Clinton led Trump in PredictIt's market on who will win the White House throughout the campaign, but news of her Republican challenger's surprise momentum sent her chance of winning the election plummeting more than 50 percentage points from its level Tuesday morning to 25 per cent.

Trump's chance, meanwhile, shot up more than 40 percentage points to around 65 per cent.

It was the first time in the entire campaign that Trump had led Clinton on the platform, according to a PredictIt spokeswoman.

Celebs post photos after voting as battle for White House nears end

  • Keith Urban and Nicole Kidman.
  • Modern Family actress Sofia Vergara and husband Joe Manganiello.
  • Hollywood actress Anne Hathaway.
  • Model Emily Ratajkowski.
  • Singer Taylor Swift.
  • Hollywood actress Jessica Alba.
  • Singer Lady Gaga.
  • Model Gigi Hadid.
  • Hollywood actor Justin Theroux.
  • Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday gave US voters a stark choice as their brutal White House battle neared its end - between her vision of unity and his promise to take back power from Washington's corrupt elites.
  • On the final day of a presidential campaign that has left a bemused world looking on in concern for its greatest power, Trump doubled down on his unabashed appeal to popular resentment.
  • The Democrat Clinton has had sharp words for her rival, a 70-year-old property tycoon who seized the conservative Republican Party and turned it into a vehicle for his populist bombast, but she ended the race pleading for unity.
  • Some 40 million Americans have already cast ballots in states that allow early voting, and tens of millions more will turn out on Tuesday for what is shaping up to be a historic clash.
  • Clinton - the 69-year-old former first lady, senator and secretary of state - has had a narrow but consistent lead in opinion polls as she strives to become America's first woman president.
  • But the campaign has been bruising - she has been dogged by allegations that she put US secrets at risk on her private email server while at the State Department and the race remains perilously close in a handful of key states.
  • Support for Trump dropped after footage emerged of him bragging about sexual assault and at least a dozen women came forward to accuse him, but polls have tightened as the big day approaches.
  • As Election Day approached - to the relief of the many voters left cold by the long drawn-out slog through the political mud - both candidates maintained break-neck schedules.
  • Clinton made stops in three battleground states, and deployed President Barack Obama as cheerleader-in-chief in another, before they were to join up at a star-studded grand finale in Philadelphia.
  • Trump sneered at Clinton's choice of pop stars - Bruce Springsteen and Lady Gaga - to attract the crowds, and stuck to his stump speech, each new version slightly more aggressive than the last.
  • Trump's vow to rip up America's free trade deals, build a wall on the Mexican border and renegotiate US treaty alliances has spooked world markets seeking stability after the recent global slowdown.
  • Last week, US stocks as measured by the S&P 500 index fell for nine straight days for the first time since 1980, only to recover a little when the FBI confirmed Clinton would not face prosecution over her emails.
  • Global stock markets surged on Monday, with Wall Street gaining more than two percent, as hopes for a Clinton victory rose after FBI director James Comey's weekend announcement that she was in the clear.