BANGKOK - UNITED Nations envoy Ibrahim Gambari returns on Thursday to Myanmar to press the junta to include opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in its election plans, but analysts say the military will likely turn him a deaf ear.

Professor Gambari is making his third trip to the military-ruled country since police and soldiers used deadly force to break up anti-government protests led by Buddhist monks in September.

At least 31 people died according to the United Nations, although Human Rights Watch has put the toll at more than 100.

On his two earlier trips, Prof Gambari tried to open a dialogue between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel peace laureate and pro-democracy leader who has been under house arrest for 12 of the last 18 years.

But on this trip, Prof Gambari faces a changed political landscape.

After months of sitting on the defensive over their bloody crackdown, the junta has reclaimed the initiative by proposing a constitutional referendum in May and multi-party elections in 2010.

'Gambari will be in a very difficult situation this time,' said Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in neighbouring Thailand.

With their new constitution in hand, the military will be less likely to heed western calls for reform - especially demands that Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) be brought into the process, he said.

Although the final version of the constitution has not been released, the regime has already announced that Aung San Suu Kyi will be barred from running in elections.

The military appears unwilling to reopen the charter for discussion, meaning Prof Gambari will have to try to secure whatever small concessions he can get to ensure the voting is free and fair, Mr Win Min said.

'He will try to ask them to negotiate to include Aung San Suu Kyi in the process, to allow the NLD to debate on the constitution at the referendum, and also to run in elections in 2010,' he said.

'It is likely that the regime will say no,' he added.

Under a law enacted last month, speaking publicly about the referendum or distributing leaflets is punishable by up to three years in prison.

Mr Aung Naing Oo, another analyst based in Thailand, said Prof Gambari has very little room in which to manoeuvre.

'If he had been allowed in earlier... he might have been able to talk to the military about the referendum. Now the laws are out,' he said.

'If you are a member of the opposition groups, and you want to go against (the constitution), you can't do it. It's against the law.'

The junta's election plan has also created divisions in the international community, which had previously made coordinated demands for reform in the wake of last year's bloody crackdown.

'They have succeeded in dividing the international community - with the (South-east Asian) countries, Russia and China saying that the referendum is a step in the right direction,' while the United States and western countries dismiss the process as a sham, said one diplomat based in Yangon.

The United States has tightened sanctions on the leadership since the announcement of the referendum, but no other countries have followed suit.

The lack of an international consensus will make it difficult for Gambari to apply pressure on the ruling generals for any changes, analysts said.

'He has a pretty weak hand to play as an outsider representing a world that doesn't have a lot of interests in Myanmar,' said Mr John Virgoe, of the Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group.

'They're not very responsive to outside pressure.' -- AFP

Is this article useful to you?