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Stanchart cuts S'pore growth forecast to 4.5%
Bryan Lee
Tue, Jan 15, 2008
The Straits Times

STANDARD Chartererd Bank economists expect Singapore's economy to slow even further this year - to a relatively low 4.5 per cent - as United States recession fears loom ever larger.

Weaker exports to the world's biggest economy will drag down trade-related services here, said the British lender, which has cut its forecast from 5.7 per cent previously.

'The US economy is heading into a recession,' Stanchart chief economist Gerard Lyons told 200 of the bank's clients at a seminar on Tuesday.

'An American downturn directly hits exports from Asia. An American downturn also indirectly impacts confidence.'

Stanchart's lower Singapore estimate follows a cut in its forecast for US growth this year from 1.4 per cent to 0.5 per cent. It left its China and India forecasts intact.

The new Singapore prediction is at the bottom-end of the Government's forecast range of 4.5 to 6.5 per cent growth this year.

It is also more pessimistic than the estimates of most economists here, which generally hover around 6 per cent.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs, which slashed its US forecast to 0.8 per cent on Monday, has a 6.4 per cent bet on Singapore, down from 7.3 per cent previously.

Stanchart Singapore economist Alvin Liew said a slower US will hit manufacturers here and trade-related services such as logistics.

Financial services, and other growth drivers such as transport engineering, will also moderate after the high base set last year.

But strong domestic demand will keep Singapore in the black, unlike in 2001 when the Republic was dragged into the red by a contracting US economy.

Growth in sectors such as construction provided 80 per cent of Singapore's economic growth last year, said Stanchart South-east Asia economist Hui Cheung Tai.

Stanchart expects the US slowdown to be a protracted one, lingering on to next year.

 

 
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