Malaysia lifts 2026 growth forecast slightly despite trade disruptions, rising fuel prices

KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia's economy is on track to grow faster in 2026 than initially projected, the central bank said on Tuesday (March 31), despite trade disruptions and higher fuel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East and US tariffs.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) now expects economic growth of between four per cent to five per cent this year, revising its forecast slightly upwards from four per cent to 4.5 per cent, according to documents released along with its annual report for 2025.

The central bank flagged risks to growth and inflation from the surge in oil prices, saying the overall impact will depend on the duration and severity of the war.

"Malaysia is facing the conflict from a position of strength, characterised by robust domestic demand, moderate inflation, a sound financial sector and a resilient external position," the central bank said in its 2025 economic and monetary review.

The increase in the top end of the growth forecast is at odds with expectations in other countries that activity will be hit by the Middle East war.

Upbeat growth outlook

BNM said domestic financial conditions are expected to remain favourable due to strong economic fundamentals, a deep domestic institutional investor base and a well-capitalised banking system, a combination that has drawn foreign interest.

Malaysia's status as a net energy exporter will also provide some buffer against the impact of the Middle East conflict, BNM added.

Growth in 2026 will be supported by strong household spending, investments, sustained demand for electrical and electronic exports, and steady tourism, the central bank said.

The economy grew by 5.2 per cent in 2025, surpassing expectations, with the country also seeing a record value of trade and approved investments last year.

Inflation was expected to remain moderate in 2026 in part due to policies aimed at cushioning the impact of rising commodity and energy prices, BNM said.

Malaysia's subsidy bill has soared since the war began. The government is now expected to spend four billion ringgit (S$1.3 million) a month, compared to 700 million ringgit previously, to maintain a fixed price for the widely used RON95 transport fuel as well as provide cash assistance for some diesel vehicle operators.

Headline inflation is expected to average between 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent in 2026, ticking up from 1.4 per cent last year, the central bank documents showed.

Core inflation is forecast to average between 1.8 per cent to 2.3 per cent this year, compared to two per cent in 2025.

Monetary policy to support growth

BNM said it was ready to respond to developments in the Middle East war.

"We also stand ready — as we have through successive periods of heightened uncertainty — to ensure orderly markets and manage risks of excessive volatility," it said.

BNM kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent for the fourth straight meeting earlier this month. It last cut its main policy rate in July 2025 after US President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on most trading partners.

The US tariff on Malaysia was later reduced to 19 per cent as part of a trade deal. After the US Supreme Court last month ruled the tariffs to be illegal, Trump imposed a 10 per cent global import duty lasting 150 days, forcing policymakers to assess the implications for Malaysia's export-driven economy.

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