Can condos further from the MRT station outperform those that are closer?

We've come a long way in the past two decades, and so has the Singapore transport system. There are more MRT stations and train lines now; and that in turn would have affected some condos.

In the past, it was much easier to conclude that just by being near an MRT station, your condo would cost more and would appreciate better; but is that true today?

We took a look at some data, and found out the answer is no longer as clear-cut:

Looking at different condos and their MRT ranges

We compared the average resale price per square foot (psf) of selected condominiums in 2014/2015 to their average psf in 2023/2024. Our selection included properties both near MRT stations and farther away, ensuring a well-rounded comparison.

For the first point of comparison, we looked at condos close and far from Kovan MRT station:

Observations from the above:

The answer to our question, at least with regard to Kovan, is yes: condos further from Kovan MRT station can outperform those that are closer. 

The "far" condos like Palm Haven, Palm Grove, Nouvelle Park, etc. have outpaced most of the nearer condos. These "far" condos show appreciation rates of between 45.5 per cent (Parc Vera) to 50.7 per cent (Palm Haven). 

Among the condos close to Kovan, the results seem a little inconsistent. Bliss @ Kovan and Kovan Melody, for instance, have appreciation rates that are almost a match for farther condos (45.9 per cent and 44.7 per cent respectively).

But The Tembusu and Suites @ Kovan, which are also near the MRT station, show weak appreciation rates of 24.6 per cent and 16.2 per cent respectively. 

We need to address other factors besides proximity to the MRT station

This is where it gets sticky, as there may be individual quirks in some projects that impact the price, regardless of MRT station proximity.

The Tembusu and Suites @ Kovan, for instance, already started at higher prices in 2014: this may have given them less room for appreciation, compared to condos further from Kovan MRT.

Ironically, the lower prices for condos further from the MRT station may be the very thing that gives them better appreciation! 

We'd also note that boutique projects, such as Palm Haven (48 units) and Suites @ Kovan (16 units) are notorious for volatile price swings; so we need to take their results with the proverbial grain of salt. Their price swings may come from limited transactions, rather than anything to do with MRT station proximity.

Next, we looked at Haw Par Villa MRT station

MRT	Project	MRT Range	Completion	No. of Units	14/15 Average	23/24 Average	Change
Haw Par Villa MRT	BAYVILLE CONDOMINIUM	Far	1996	63	$928	$1,367	47.4per cent
Haw Par Villa MRT	PALM MANSIONS	Far	1998	30	$871	$1,281	47.2per cent
Haw Par Villa MRT	PALM GREEN	Far	1999	40	$920	$1,289	40.0per cent
Haw Par Villa MRT	THE PEAK@BALMEG	Near	2011	180	$1,319	$1,680	27.4per cent
Haw Par Villa MRT	PARC IMPERIAL	Near	2010	138	$1,586	$1,856	17.0per cent
Haw Par Villa MRT	THE ORIENT	Near	2017	52	$1,966	$1,883	-4.2per cent

For Haw Par Villa MRT station, the projects located further away saw better appreciation. In fact, The Orient, which is closer to the MRT station, actually saw a decline of 4.2 per cent. 

Among the "far" condos, we saw appreciation rates of around 40 per cent (Palm Green) to 47.4 per cent (Bayville). The "near" condos like The Peak (27.4 per cent) and Parc Imperial (17 per cent) fall quite far behind.

We feel there's a pattern here: again we see the "far" condos having a much lower initial price, allowing for more growth later on. We also see that The Orient — which was the weakest performer — is a boutique (52-unit) condo with the highest starting price. 

So far, the numbers seem to suggest that lower initial prices, plus larger projects, may outperform counterparts closer to the MRT station.

Finally, let's look at Queenstown MRT station

MRT	Project	MRT Range	Completion	No. of Units	14/15 Average	23/24 Average	Change
Queenstown	QUEENSWAY TOWER	Far	1976	78	$943	$1,308	38.7per cent
Queenstown	THE INTERLACE	Far	2013	1040	$1,239	$1,566	26.4per cent
Queenstown	THE ANCHORAGE	Near	1997	775	$1,250	$1,828	46.2per cent
Queenstown	QUEENS	Near	2002	722	$1,260	$1,632	29.6per cent
Queenstown	COMMONWEALTH TOWERS	Near	2017	845	$1,685	$2,147	27.4per cent
Queenstown	ALEXIS	Near	2012	293	$1,797	$1,730	-3.7per cent

Here, we can see the results diverge from Haw Par Villa and Kovan MRT stations. The top performer for this segment is The Anchorage, which is quite close to Queenstown MRT. It managed an appreciation of 46.2 per cent.

The Interlace didn't seem to appreciate as much — averaging around a 26.4 per cent increase over the same period. Upon further digging, you'll see that the 4-bedders here lacked in terms of growth:

Year	2BR	3BR	4BR
2014	$1,347	$1,221	$1,214
2015	$1,320	$1,217	$1,131
2016	$1,251	$1,080	$1,008
2017	$1,193	$1,020	$928
2018	$1,376	$1,211	$984
2019	$1,341	$1,276	$995
2020	$1,295	$1,249	$1,210
2021	$1,388	$1,259	$1,130
2022	$1,472	$1,380	$1,234
2023	$1,643	$1,510	$1,143
2024	$1,701	$1,596	$1,320
2025	$1,561	$1,653	$1,381
14/15 Average	$1,334	$1,219	$1,173
23/24 Average	$1,672	$1,553	$1,232
per cent Change	25.3per cent	27.4per cent	5.0per cent

More importantly, however, prices at The Interlace was quite high in 2014/15:

Year	2BR	3BR	4BR
2014	$1,432,226	$2,325,376	$3,276,036
2015	$1,336,167	$2,391,740	$3,469,819
2016	$1,468,750	$2,284,281	$2,721,650
2017	$1,461,300	$2,270,992	$3,524,364
2018	$1,349,806	$2,487,167	$3,739,182
2019	$1,421,556	$2,414,453	$3,426,667
2020	$1,529,250	$2,114,231	$3,906,250
2021	$1,488,087	$2,382,854	$3,743,188
2022	$1,813,859	$2,560,614	$3,756,000
2023	$1,581,574	$2,726,799	$3,922,000
2024	$1,668,555	$3,033,138	$4,393,000
2025	$1,836,667	$3,540,000	$3,765,000

In 2014, 2 bedders here averaged $1.4+ million which was high for that time. With such a high price point, there leaves lower room for growth which could explain its performance.

The other "far" condo — Queensway Tower (38.7 per cent), still beat out the "near" condos of Queens (29.6 per cent) and Commonwealth Towers (27.4 per cent). 

Alexis, which is one of the "near" condos, saw a decline of 3.7 per cent; and we notice it's the smallest of the condos here by unit count (293 units). Speculatively, we think this may be due to Alexis having a large number of one and two-bedder units.

A high number of compact units have crept up in Queenstown over the years, and Alexis may just be a victim of small-unit oversupply (although we'd need to do a deeper study to confirm that.) 

Overall, the appreciation gap between near and far condos was smaller here compared to Kovan and Haw Par Villa, suggesting that other factors (unit size, development type, and initial pricing) may weigh more than proximity to the MRT. 

We can conclude that prices near MRT stations are higher, but appreciation may not always be.

For units near the MRT station, the proximity is already reflected in the price; and the higher initial price tag means less room for future appreciation. What could make a real difference here is a qualitative rather than quantitative factor: that's rentability and saleability.

That is, it may be easier to find a tenant (although yields are not necessarily higher), or quicker to find a buyer (although gains may not be better.) 

We'd also note that there's a slant toward bigger projects — by unit count — having a more consistent record of gains. A bigger condo further from the MRT station can and has turned out to be a better deal, compared to a boutique condo near the station.

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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.