18,425 HDB flats could reach MOP in 2026: Which estates will offer buyers the most choices?

Over eight months ago, we identified the HDB projects that would be entering the resale market in 2026. As we move closer to the end of the third quarter of 2026, it’s about time we revisit this list of eligible resale flats.

The size of the incoming supply of resale eligible flats is certainly significant. When we take into account the 22 projects completed in 2021, an estimated 18,425 flats could reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026.

To be clear, this housing supply isn’t going to enter the public housing market all at once, and of course not every flat will be put up for sale just because they hit their MOP. 

But we can see the effect of an increase in resale supply starting to take root this year. In the linked article, we cover how flats with at least 94 years remaining on their leases (a useful proxy for newly MOP-ed units) accounted for 5.9 per cent of resale transactions in the second quarter of this year. 

This was up 4.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter compared to 1Q2026.

This uptick in sales coincides with the slowing price growth in the HDB resale market, which probably comes as a relief to aspiring home buyers. 

Overall, this year has seen HDB resale prices perform mostly flat: they were down 0.1 per cent q-o-q in 1Q2026 and slipped by another 0.3per cent q-o-q in 2Q2026.

These are the first two consecutive quarterly declines in the resale HDB market since 2019, and it suggests that the rapid price increases that characterised the post-Covid 19 era are behind us.

With that in mind, which BTO projects are contributing to the new housing supply, and what has actually happened since we highlighted them last year?

Here are some noteworthy observations, based on the data compiled by Stacked.

The scarcity of larger-sized and centrally located flats means their prices may still rise despite the overall supply situation

The increase in resale-eligible flats this year doesn’t apply evenly across all flat types or locations. In particular, the supply of five-room flats remains limited in highly desirable central and city-fringe locations.

For example, Dakota Breeze, Kallang Residences and Pine Vista have no five-room flats at all. Alkaff Oasis does, but there are just 165 within the 1,594-unit project. 

Buyers looking for a recently MOP-ed five-room flat in these locations will therefore likely continue to face limited choices.

It’s possible that HDB resale prices in these locations will not slow down, as sellers don’t face the same degree of competition as other HDB estates. 

As record-setting transactions set new benchmarks and seller expectations, the price of five-room flats in these sought-after areas may continue to significantly appreciate — regardless of the broad trend shaping the wider resale market.

Northshore in Punggol may see the most direct competition between sellers 

The spotlight will be on a handful of eye-catching BTO projects in Northshore. The four projects — Northshore Cove, Northshore Edge and Waterfront I & II @ Northshore — collectively house 2,883 flats.

Those relatively developments make up the new waterfront neighbourhood in Punggol Coast, and the flats will all reach their MOP within a few months of each other. We covered these BTO projects in the past in this article here if you want to know more details.

These four BTO projects, and the resale eligible flats there, will give buyers house hunting in that neighbourhood with several close substitutes of comparable age and location. 

That’s good news for buyers looking for a relatively new flat in this part of Punggol, as opposed to being limited to one or two listings. There’s a good chance that buyers will have a good range of choices all across the wider Northshore cluster.

While newer flats typically come with a hefty price premium, there may be a balancing factor here. If many owners start listing their units for sale over the coming months, sellers may find it harder to maintain their ambitious asking prices.

Buyers who do not need a larger flat will have plenty of two-room options 

Based on the list compiled by Stacked, there are 4,475 units of two-room flats which will hit their MOP this year. 

This makes it the second-largest category of newly available resale units this year, with four-room flats making up the majority (as they always have for decades).

It is worth taking note, especially among buyers who do not need a larger family home, such as singles, retirees or couples purchasing on a single income. 

These flats provide a lower-quantum route into home ownership. And for those in urgent need, this may be your signal to check out available prices and listings.

There is the caveat that the supply of new MOP two-room flats is spread across several areas, including Yishun, Sengkang, Punggol, Bukit Batok and Woodlands. 

But we reckon that if you’re among the buyers looking for a new home in this category, you’re one of the winners from the upcoming supply situation.

The full impact of this bumper crop of MOP flats will likely extend beyond 2026

The data indicates that this is a rolling supply wave, rather than a one-off event. A BTO development that was completed in 2021, doesn’t mean each household collected its keys at the same time.

MOP dates can still differ between blocks and individual owners. Thus, some BTO projects may continue to produce a good number of resale listings as we approach the end of 2026 and into 2027.

Moreover, while there are some owners who sell their flat immediately after it hits its MOP, a good number of owners tend to hang back to gauge buying interest and to see how the resale price settles.

Even HDB upgraders may need time to secure replacement homes and make the necessary housing and financial preparations. 

Thus, their flats may emerge on the resale market gradually over the following months or years. So, the effect of this bumper crop of MOP flats could linger for several quarters.

This means that aspiring buyers on the hunt for a newly MOP flat will enjoy a growing line up of choices over the next year or so, while sellers may face sustained competition. This could continue to restrain rising resale flat prices beyond the near term.

So, if you aren’t in a strong position to secure a resale flat this year, we think that there’s no need to panic. 

Even setting aside the known number of MOP flats hitting the market in 2026, looking ahead, we do see other large cohorts of flats reaching their MOP in 2027 and 2028. 

For example, industry projections suggest that around 18,000 flats could reach their MOP in 2027, followed by another 21,000 flats in 2028.

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