Is Singapore's property market slowing down? What top developers are hinting
PHOTO: Stackedhomes
PUBLISHED ONAugust 05, 2023 6:05 AM
If you are looking out for a home and want to get an insight into the market, one of the best ways is to look at what the developers are doing.
Most developers have their nose to the metaphorical and literal ground. They know, with an almost high level of accuracy, when sales are going to slow (those who don't, won't remain in the business for long).
So when only two developers bid for a land plot at Jalan Tembusu (and the winning bid only being 18 per cent lower than Tembusu Grand, or 21 per cent lower than Grand Dunman), it's worth paying attention to.
That's not to say that the Jalan Tembusu plot is a bad one. The venerable Chung Cheng High School is close to it, as is Tanjong Katong Girls School, currently the best school in the universe*. It can yield 840 homes, which is on the larger end of projects, and it's even near the upcoming Tanjong Katong MRT station.
I've looked up and down the map for issues, visited the spot myself, and seen nothing that would suggest it's bad for a residence.
And yet developers — who are likely land-starved as the 2017 en-bloc parcels are all redeveloped and sold — still played it cautious.
There are obvious reasons, such as the current trio of Grand Dunman, Tembusu Grand, and The Continuum, that have yet to sell out. Buyers in the area currently still have a lot of choice, although with where sales are at — there is an upper limit of what buyers are willing to pay in these areas.
Besides, there is also the new definition of GFA, in which AC ledges will now be included as part of the GFA. While this means that spaces will be more efficient (no more oversized air-con ledges), this would also affect the overall margins.
Developers may be buying at a cheaper land cost, but add in the above and don't expect this new plot to be launched at a discount either.
Now follow this up with the Marina Bay land plot, that we covered in this article, where there was a very clear difference in value over the land between Kingsford and GuocoLand. There also seems to be little interest from local developers in the Marina area, with the last Marina plot only receiving a sole bid from IOI Properties Group (a Malaysian developer).
You can also see this from the Pine Grove GLS site, where it was keenly contested — but all by local developers.
Perhaps it's because some of them — like the big Chinese developers — have deeper pockets and can take bigger risks. But it could very well be that local developers know their market, and are quicker to sense the storm (and let's not forget the impact of the 60 per cent foreigner ABSD).
Instead, all the interest (seven bidders) has gone into the Tampines Street 62 land plot, for Tenet EC. This is the developer equivalent of seeking safe havens because ECs are low-hanging fruit. The subsidised pricing makes them among the easiest properties to sell on the market, especially now when more HDB upgraders are priced out and need an intermediary rung between flats and fully-private condos.
All of this means a change is in the air. Home prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since after Covid, is reaching the very limits of what the market can tolerate. That, at least, is good news for home buyers who have yet to catch a break.
*Objectively true because this writer once taught there.
Weekly sales roundup (July 17 to 23)
Top 5 most expensive new sales (by project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| CANNINGHILL PIERS | $8,648,000 | 2788 | $3,102 | 99 yrs (2021) |
| BOULEVARD 88 | $4,941,600 | 1313 | $3,763 | FH |
| KLIMT CAIRNHILL | $4,900,000 | 1432 | $3,423 | FH |
| MIDTOWN MODERN | $4,877,000 | 1808 | $2,697 | 99 yrs (2019) |
| GRAND DUNMAN | $4,351,000 | 1690 | $2,575 | 99 years |
Top 5 cheapest new sales (By project)
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| GRAND DUNMAN | $1,129,000 | 452 | $2,497 | 99 years |
| THE MYST | $1,151,000 | 517 | $2,228 | 99 yrs (2023) |
| LENTOR HILLS RESIDENCES | $1,324,000 | 581 | $2,278 | 99 years |
| THE ATELIER | $1,508,000 | 549 | $2,747 | FH |
| MIDTOWN BAY | $1,612,600 | 484 | $3,329 | 99 yrs (2018) |
Top 5 most expensive resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| ARDMORE PARK | $12,800,000 | 2885 | $4,437 | FH |
| SHELFORD VIEW | $7,500,000 | 5134 | $1,461 | FH |
| CAPE ROYALE | $5,783,000 | 2508 | $2,306 | 99 yrs (2008) |
| THE TRILLIUM | $4,600,000 | 1798 | $2,559 | FH |
| AVALON | $4,300,000 | 1765 | $2,436 | FH |
Top 5 cheapest resale
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | TENURE |
| NESS | $613,000 | 388 | $1,582 | FH |
| GRANDVIEW SUITES | $620,000 | 420 | $1,477 | FH |
| THE PROMENADE@PELIKAT | $668,000 | 452 | $1,478 | FH |
| HAIG RESIDENCES | $668,000 | 452 | $1,478 | FH |
| PALM ISLES | $725,000 | 560 | $1,295 | 99 yrs (2011) |
Top 5 biggest winners
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| ARDMORE PARK | $12,800,000 | 2885 | $4,437 | $4,000,000 | 6 Years |
| AVALON | $4,300,000 | 1765 | $2,436 | $1,840,000 | 7 Years |
| HILLVIEW GREEN | $2,400,000 | 1528 | $1,570 | $1,755,000 | 17 Years |
| THE PETALS | $4,188,888 | 4402 | $951 | $1,488,888 | 3 Years |
| RIO VISTA | $2,310,000 | 2271 | $1,017 | $1,483,500 | 22 Years |
Top 5 biggest losers
| PROJECT NAME | PRICE S$ | AREA (SQFT) | $PSF | RETURNS | HOLDING PERIOD |
| MON JERVOIS | $1,702,000 | 893 | $1,905 | -$415,000 | 6 Years |
| THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY | $3,100,000 | 1647 | $1,882 | -$400,000 | 11 Years |
| SKYSUITES@ANSON | $1,430,000 | 700 | $2,044 | -$110,000 | 8 Years |
| THE ASANA | $1,490,000 | 570 | $2,612 | -$84,000 | 5 Years |
| AVANT RESIDENCES | $803,000 | 527 | $1,522 | -$3,800 | 5 Years |
Transaction breakdown
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This article was first published in Stackedhomes.