SoftBank's Son says AI will need $6.4t per year by 2040, dismisses bubble talk

TOKYO — The development of AI will require investment of US$5 trillion (S$6.4 trillion) each year by 2040, and any talk of a bubble forming around the technology is "absurd", SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son said on Tuesday (July 14).

Over the past two years, the technology investment group has embarked on an expansive investment programme to establish itself as a core AI platform, putting tens of billions into OpenAI, financing data centres and investing in robotics firms.

"Every year US$5 trillion, or 800 trillion yen (S$6.4 trillion), you might think that's a lie, but I am confident that's what it will cost," Son said at SoftBank's annual corporate conference in Tokyo.

"The business model will be viable because by 2040, if AI revenue makes up 20 per cent of global GDP, spending 800 trillion yen a year is a rounding error," Son said.

He did not say how he came up with the $5 trillion number or the proportion of global GDP he expects AI will make up.

Son made his name and fortune through big bets on transformational technologies and is known for enthusiastic speeches touting their promise.

AI firms have soared in value while capital expenditure to secure the underlying infrastructure has ballooned, sparking concern over whether these firms will generate sufficient return on their investments.

"Asking if AI is a bubble is absurd. I don't think people who ask that question know what AI is about," he said, reiterating his position on the matter.

While Son scored major wins with an early investment in Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba and bringing Apple Inc's iPhone to the Japanese mobile phone market, others, like bankrupt shared-office provider WeWork, failed to live up to the hype.

Presently SoftBank's highest-conviction wager is on ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, in which its cumulative investment is set to exceed $60 billion before 2026 ends.

To power AI, Son predicted AI data centres will need power generation of three terawatts by 2040, equal to 1.8 times total current global power consumption.

This will initially be powered primarily by gas before nuclear fusion becomes the main energy source, Son said.

"Will we use solar power in space as Elon Musk says? Maybe we will use both, but if you ask me fusion on earth will be the cheaper, cleaner energy source," he said.

Son outlined his vision of society in 2040 where 100 trillion AI agents make their own decisions, take action and communicate with other agents.

"We will go from a human-centric world to an agent-centric world. The age when humans are the highest life form on earth will end. For better or for worse, it will happen and it can't be stopped," Son said.

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