What is the impact of the upgrades to Bayshore?

Well, there goes the seaview.

For decades, the residents in the Bayshore Road cluster (three condos: Costa Del Sol, Bayshore Road, and Bayshore Park) have tolerated poor public transport access, and limited amenities, in exchange for one of Singapore’s best sea views.

But with the Long Island Plan underway, these residents are going to lose their beloved seafront views, with all the ships lining up along the coast. 

To make it even worse, the Long Island project will likely close large swathes of East Coast Beach; so one of the main selling points of condos like Costa Del Sol (underground beach access) will be diminished; at least for a number of years.

This is the loss of a major amenity, if it means that the BBQ pits, biking trails, fishing piers, and the nearby food village are all shut down. 

But there’s some compensation: Bayshore is going to house a new HDB enclave, with MRT stations, shopping, and so forth. And the new MRT station, which should be running by next year, is already visible. These flats are even Plus model flats; and these developments will fix long standing issues of inaccessibility, and sparse amenities.

This has resulted in two conflicting views:

The first is that condos around Bayshore are going to fare badly: they’re losing their view, and the former peace and quiet will be shattered by dense housing blocks and bus malls. 

The second is that condos around Bayshore should be celebrating, because the emergence of the MRT station — along with new amenities — will cause values to skyrocket. 

Which is correct? I have to admit, it has me stumped. This is like downing sleeping pills with Red Bull; I don’t know which of the two forces are going to win out. But one thing’s for sure: the vibe of the entire Bayshore area is going to change.

We may see a transition from the current "quiet resort" environment, to an emergent hub — perhaps comparable to Paya Lebar or Tampines, in the earlier stages of their upgrading. 

Incidentally, if you’re wondering why I don’t just call up the price data and check, it’s because that’s of no real use right now.

Practically every project saw good appreciation in the post-Covid-19 period, especially older condos with bigger units; so while prices have gone up for all three Bayshore Road condos, there’s no way to tell how much of it is due (or not due) to the new enclave. 

It also goes to show that, in the long run, even knowing the Master Plan has limited benefits

There were no large residential plots near the Bayshore condos at the time they were built; everything in the area was low-density, all the way up to the Bedok South area. The nearby Lucky Heights estate was – and still is – all landed housing.

Costa Del Sol and Bayshore Park were pushed right up against the coast; building anything else would require it to be underwater. So who could foresee that, at some point during the 99-year lease, Singapore would build an entire island to block the seaview? Or that an HDB enclave would literally spring up out of nowhere? 

And as an interesting aside, some residents of Bayshore and Bayshore Park have gone through this before: when Costa Del Sol became the newest condo on the block, many decades back, some units at these two older properties also had their seaview impeded.

And in these cases, the owners also wouldn’t have seen it coming, as Costa Del Sol’s land parcel wasn’t visible on the Master Plan to them – at least not at the time. 

In the end, we can study the Master Plan as much as we like; but over periods of five or more years, it’s still a case of "anything goes". 

Weekly sales roundup (Nov 20 – Nov 26)

Top 5 most expensive new sales (by project)

Top 5 cheapest new sales (by project)

PROJECT NAME	PRICE $	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
THE ARDEN	$1,220,000	657	$1,858	99 yrs (2023)
ORCHARD SOPHIA	$1,285,000	463	$2,776	FH
PINETREE HILL	$1,316,700	538	$2,446	99 yrs (2022)
THE LAKEGARDEN RESIDENCES	$1,328,000	592	$2,243	99 yrs (2023)
GRAND DUNMAN	$1,385,000	549	$2,523	99 yrs (2022)

Top 5 most expensive resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE $	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
8 NAPIER	$6,700,000	2013	$3,329	FH
THE SOVEREIGN	$6,500,000	2637	$2,465	FH
PEBBLE BAY	$5,100,000	2626	$1,942	99 yrs (1994)
AALTO	$3,820,000	1528	$2,499	FH
DUET	$3,680,000	1744	$2,110	FH

Top 5 cheapest resale

PROJECT NAME	PRICE $	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	TENURE
SUITES@BRADDELL	$650,000	398	$1,632	FH
SUITES @ SIMS	$655,000	355	$1,844	FH
PARC ROSEWOOD	$662,672	431	$1,539	99 yrs (2011)
JOOL SUITES	$725,000	409	$1,772	FH
LAVERNE’S LOFT	$740,000	474	$1,562	FH

Top 5 biggest winners

PROJECT NAME	PRICE $	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
THE SOVEREIGN	$6,500,000	2637	$2,465	$3,000,000	13 Years
DUET	$3,680,000	1744	$2,110	$2,319,000	19 Years
AMARANDA GARDENS	$2,508,000	1259	$1,991	$1,676,000	22 Years
ROBERTSON 100	$2,638,888	1152	$2,291	$1,569,688	19 Years
HUME PARK II	$2,450,000	1475	$1,661	$1,560,000	25 Years

Top 5 biggest losers

PROJECT NAME	PRICE $	AREA (SQFT)	$PSF	RETURNS	HOLDING PERIOD
THE VERMONT ON CAIRNHILL	$2,300,000	915	$2,514	-$200,000	11 Years
LUMIERE	$985,000	635	$1,551	-$175,000	13 Years
THE ROCHESTER RESIDENCES	$1,300,000	1023	$1,271	-$50,360	15 Years
D’LEEDON	$1,308,000	635	$2,060	$6,600	11 Years
SIXTEEN35 RESIDENCES	$1,000,000	667	$1,498	$12,000	5 Years

Transaction breakdown

ALSO READ: Fancy waterfront living? HDB to launch 2 Bayshore BTO projects in 2024, likely under new Plus model

This article was first published in Stackedhomes.