PUBLISHED ONSeptember 22, 2026 11:15 AMBYSean LerSingapore's continued ability to interpret and project — ahead of time — the implications of personalities, institutions and forces shaping the world are necessary for the country to stay relevant, connected and ahead, said Coordinating Minister for Public Services Chan Chun Sing on Tuesday (Sept 22).
"Think of not just trying to understand what is happening; but trying to think two or three steps ahead, and to forewarn Singapore before what people thought would never happen actually does," said Chan at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies' (RSIS) 30th anniversary distinguished lecture.
But while celebrating the milestone, Chan, who is also Singapore's Minister for Defence and Minister-in-charge of the Public Service, cautioned that the world has changed over the past 30 years.
He pointed to how the US-China rivalry now spans across trade, technology, supply chains, and ideology; and how economic interdependence, which was once seen as a source of shared prosperity, has now become a tool of leverage and coercion.
And while Singapore can never change its geography, nor opt out of geopolitics, it can choose to continuously understand the world better.
"What we can do, and what we must do, is to understand the world more deeply than others would expect a small state to — and more importantly, to use that understanding to stay relevant, to stay connected, and to stay ahead."
To do this, the coordinating minister said that RSIS must aspire to be the institution that keeps a "deep, granular human understanding" of specific leaders and their worldviews, insecurities and ambitions.
It also means understanding the personalities, institutional pressures and domestic politics that may affect the foreign and domestic policy of big and middle powers.
"(This) requires persistent research, language skills, long-cultivated relationships, and genuine intellectual immersion in other societies," Chan emphasised.
Citing his observations at the recent RSIS Trilateral Exchange, involving American and Chinese academics which was held in Singapore in July, Chan noted that Singapore's value in the discussions depended entirely on the quality of its understanding and credibility of its analysis.
That credibility, he said, has to be continuously earned.
Turning to interactions closer to home, Chan warned that Singapore cannot take its relationship with its closest neighbours — Malaysia and Indonesia for granted.
He said that these relationships require the same depth of history, political culture, and the deep forces shaping their societies from within, including their economic structures, demographics, and relationships between the different states and institutions within their polities.
And alongside these geopolitical shifts, Chan pointed out that technology is also redrawing the boundaries of security and warfare.
That credibility, he said, has to be continuously earned.
This, as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and drones change how conflicts are fought and power is projected.
"Conflicts today do not begin only when shots are fired; they begin long before — in cyberspace, in the information environment, in the grey zones below the threshold of traditional war," the Defence Minister said.
He added that RSIS can help Singapore think through both the opportunities and risks as a small state — in terms of what they mean for how the country can organise, operate, and make decisions.
This includes ensuring that human judgement remains at the centre of consequential choices, even with AI, Chan said.
And where technologies cross borders, RSIS' role can be in helping to develop the common ground and shared expectations of responsible behaviour that, in turn, reduce the risk of miscalculation.
"Because in the end, this is what it is all about: sound judgement about the capabilities and intentions of others.
"Capabilities are easier to see and assess based on what we can gather from various sources, but intentions are hard," Chan said.
It is this ability to distinguish "signal" from "noise" and the wisdom of knowing when to act and when to hold back, that could become consequential, he added.
Closing off his speech, Chan point out that in an evolving world, Singapore needs its own strategic voice: "Our task is to see it clearly, understand it deeply, and help Singapore navigate it wisely – ahead of time."
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