JOHANNESBURG — China's role as a leading financier to developing nations has shifted over the past decade, with new loans to poorer countries falling sharply while debt repayments continue to rise, according to analysis released by ONE Data.
The inaugural report by the ONE Data initiative found that many low- and middle-income countries — particularly in Africa — are now transferring more funds to China in debt payments than they receive in fresh financing from the world's second-largest economy.
The swing has coincided with a surge in net financing from multilateral institutions, which have become the main source of development finance once debt-service outflows are taken into account.
Multilateral lenders increased net financing by 124 per cent over the past decade and now provide 56 per cent of net flows, equivalent to US$379 billion (S$480 billion) between 2020 and 2024, the analysis found.
"The fact that there's less lending coming in, but that previous lending from China still needs to be serviced — that's the source of the outflows," said David McNair, executive director at ONE Data.
In 2020-24, the most recent period for which data is available, Africa saw the largest impact, with an inflow of US$30 billion in 2015-19 turning to an outflow of US$22 billion.
The data does not include cuts that took effect in 2025. The closure of the US Agency for International Development last year and a drop in allocations from other developed countries has already hit developing economies, especially in Africa.
Once 2025 data becomes available, it is likely to show a large drop in Official Development Assistance flows, said McNair.
He said the trend was "a net negative" for African nations, as many governments face difficulties funding public services and investment — but would at the same time promote domestic accountability as governments rely less on external financing.
The report also highlighted a broader decline in bilateral finance flows and private external debt — also trends likely to be exacerbated by aid cuts from 2025 onwards.
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