France's budget built on shaky ground, fiscal watchdog warns

PARIS — The French government's 2026 budget plans are based on rosy economic assumptions and its belt-tightening measures may fall short or never even take shape, the independent fiscal watchdog said on Tuesday (Oct 14).

Reappointed on Friday, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu is racing to present a 2026 budget bill to parliament before constitutional limits on reviewing the legislation run out.

The budget, already submitted to the Haut Conseil des Finances Publiques for review, aims to reduce the deficit to between 4.7 per cent and five per cent of GDP — a modest improvement from this year's 5.4 per cent, the fiscal watchdog said.

The government's plan hinges on a more than 30-billion-euro (S$45 billion) budget squeeze, including cuts to corporate tax breaks, tighter rules on social welfare contributions, and new levies such as a small parcel tax and an exceptional surtax on complementary health insurers, the Haut Conseil said.

It also clamps down on the taxation of holding companies used by wealthy people to lower their tax bills, stopping short of a two per cent tax on wealth over 100 million euros as demanded by the Socialists.

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