WASHINGTON — Canada and the US moved closer Wednesday (Aug 19) to finalising a trade agreement that would avert threatened 50 per cent US tariffs, with a senior Canadian official calling the emerging terms "a very good deal for Canada" while cautioning that negotiations were not complete.
President Donald Trump said the agreement was "very fair" to both sides and predicted US farmers and manufacturers would benefit. The tariffs on about US$20 billion (S$25.4 billion) worth of Canadian imports have been postponed until 12.01am (12.01pm SGT) Saturday.
The senior Canadian official said the emerging agreement would provide greater certainty, protect Canada's dairy sector and jobs threatened by the new tariffs, and preserve what Ottawa considers favourable trade terms with the US.
Prime Minister Mark Carney asked provincial premiers during a briefing to return US alcohol to store shelves, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston said, a step aimed at addressing one of the Trump administration's key trade complaints.
Houston and two other premiers voiced support for the direction of the talks, though Houston said whether Canadians would actually buy US alcohol again "is a whole other discussion".
The senior official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the negotiations publicly before an agreement is finalised.
Here's what to know:
Last month, Trump invoked a never-before-used legal authority, dating back to the Great Depression, to announce that the US would slap 50 per cent tariffs on US$20 billion, or about five per cent, of Canadian exports to the US, ranging from hockey sticks to tongue depressors.
Trump claimed that Canada discriminates against American exports of autos, alcohol and cheese.
The US president is also furious that Canada and China were the only countries that punched back with retaliatory tariffs of their own when he slapped levies on their products.
While details of the agreement emerging Wednesday remain vague, Trump claimed Canada had agreed to end tariffs on US agricultural products. "The tariffs will be non-existent for our farmers. Our farmers were paying tremendous tariffs into Canada, and those tariffs are going to be totally eviscerated. Down to zero," he said.
Canada currently allows a set amount of dairy imports at low tariffs. Once imports exceed that limit, much higher tariffs apply. The US says Canada's "supply management″ system makes it harder for American dairy producers to get full access to the Canadian market.
Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-US trade, told reporters in Washington that Canada's "agriculture sector will be well protected and we have maintained our tough line".
The senior Canadian official was even more explicit, saying supply management was "not on the table" and Canada's dairy system would remain protected.
That leaves another key question unresolved: how Canada can preserve supply management while giving US farmers the additional access Trump says they will get.
Canada has not publicly detailed what tariff relief Washington has offered.
But the senior Canadian official said the emerging agreement would avert the new 50 per cent tariffs, protect a significant number of jobs and preserve Canada's favourable access to the US market.
The official also said the agreement would allow Canada to focus more on its domestic economic agenda, including infrastructure projects, attracting foreign investment and diversifying exports beyond the US.
Provincial leaders also signalled that a trade agreement would not mean returning to the previous Canada-US economic relationship.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said "the old status quo is not possible", while British Columbia Premier David Eby said, agreement or not, "we will not go back to the way things were before".
In announcing the tariff pause, Trump said the long-cancelled Keystone XL pipeline "may be awoken from the grave", though he did not say it was part of the agreement.
The project, designed to carry Canadian crude to US refineries, was rejected by Barack Obama, revived by Trump and cancelled again by Joe Biden.
Carney had already raised reviving Keystone XL with Trump at the White House in October 2025, and Trump was receptive, according to a Canadian government official familiar with the discussion.
A revival would align with a longstanding Canadian goal rather than amount to a new US concession.
Eight of Canada's 10 provinces restrict or ban US alcohol — measures imposed in retaliation for Trump's previous tariffs on a number of Canadian goods last year and amid anger over his repeated talk of making Canada the 51st US state.
The Distilled Spirits Council says US spirits exports to Canada have fallen more than 70 per cent.
Ontario, Canada's most populous province, is especially important. Its government-run LCBO, one of the world's largest alcohol purchasers, sold nearly $1 billion Canadian dollars (S921 million) in US products annually before pulling them from shelves.
The White House says the emerging deal includes a Canadian commitment to address the restrictions. But Carney cannot order provinces to restore sales.
The backlash extends beyond liquor stores, with Canadian travel to the US falling sharply. Even if US alcohol returns, sales could take time to recover.
The US is renegotiating a North American trade pact — the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement — that Trump strong-armed America's neighbours into accepting in his first term. The US has begun formal USMCA negotiations with Mexico but not with Canada.
The senior Canadian official said resolving the immediate tariff dispute would provide a path toward broader USMCA negotiations.
If the threat of 50 per cent tariffs is cleared, it "should help pave the way for formal US-Canada negotiations", said Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator who is now senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Both countries had incentives to head off an escalation in trade tensions.
Nearly 72 per cent of Canada's goods exports last year went to the US.
And the Trump administration might be wary of imposing a hefty new tariff — paid by US importers who try to pass along the cost to consumers via higher prices — ahead of November's midterm elections.
American voters are already frustrated with the high cost of living.
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