The Thucydides Trap: Why did Xi raise it and how did Trump respond?

In his opening remarks at a summit between the United States and China on Thursday (May 14), Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed hope that conflict could be avoided between the two great powers, and asked: "Can China and the United States transcend the so-called 'Thucydides Trap' and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?"

Those uninitiated in ancient history or foreign policy might not have a clue about what Xi was referring to, although the term has been circulating for the last 15 years, especially in academia.

Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general who wrote an account of the Peloponnesian War that was fought between Sparta and Athens. In History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides wrote: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable".

American political scientist Graham Allison coined the term Thucydides' Trap around 2011 based on that observation, to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power — such as Athens — challenges the status of a dominant power — such as Sparta. The scholar further built on that term in his 2017 book destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap? in which he argued that "China and the US are currently on a collision course for war".

While war between an emerging power and a dominant power is not inevitable, Allison — who was formerly US Assistant Secretary of Defence from 1993 to 1994 under President Bill Clinton — argues that conflict may be very difficult to avoid and requires careful attention to avoid falling into Thucydides' Trap.

In his own words in his 2017 book, Allison — who is currently Professor of Government at the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University — defines the term as follows: "Thucydides' Trap refers to the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power... the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception".

Allison's book examined historical cases over the past 500 years in which an emerging power challenged a dominant one; among 16 cases, 12 ended in war. 

Xi has been referencing Thucydides' Trap over the last decade.

In his speech on Thursday, Xi also warned that if the US mishandles the issue of Taiwan, the two powers would "have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy".

How Trump responded

While Xi's use of the Thucydides Trap did not directly imply that the US is in decline, President Donald Trump chose to focus on this in a post on his Truth Social platform the same day, blaming the previous administration.

"When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, and on that score, he was 100 per cent correct."

Trump also claimed that Xi was not referring to the "incredible rise" of the US under the 16 months of his current administration, and cited "all-time high stock markets", the state of the US job market and the Iran war, among other things.

"In fact, President Xi congratulated me on so many tremendous successes in such a short period of time," he asserted.

"Two years ago, we were, in fact, a Nation in decline. On that, I fully agree with President Xi! But now, the United States is the hottest Nation anywhere in the world, and hopefully our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever before!" 

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helmy.saat@asiaone.com