PUBLISHED ONJanuary 08, 2026 11:00 AMBYKhoo Yi-HangIn the immediate aftermath of the US' intervention in Venezuela, some analysts were quick to opine that the attack will embolden China to strengthen its territorial claims over areas such as Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea.
However, political analysts AsiaOne spoke disagreed with this take, stating that they do not expect China to take a similar course of action on Taiwan or elsewhere — at least not in the short-term.
US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores early on Saturday (Jan 3) and subsequently flew them to the US — where Maduro was indicted on charges including narco-terrorism and Flores charged with cocaine importation.
A day later, on Jan 4, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing cannot accept any country acting as the "world's police" or the "world's judge".
"The sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected under international law," he said.
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres has also called out the US action being in contravention of international law and expressed concern about "the precedent it may set for how relations between and among states are conducted".
Closer to home, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Jan 8 said the US use of military force in Venezuela comes at a cost of destabilising international order.
While the US' actions can be seen as "providing a template" for superpowers to "bully or even annex smaller states" that are within their sphere of influence, China would probably not risk war with the US over Taiwan, said Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) adjunct principal research fellow Tan Ern Ser.
"I also do not see China as having any territorial ambition on its neighbours, while Trump is... already making threats on some of its neighbours, including Greenland to its north," he told AsiaOne.
Associate Professor Tan noted that the attack on Venezuela is reflective of US President Donald Trump's disdain for the rule of law and lack of regard for established norms and values, as well as the independence of sovereign states.
Concurring, National University of Singapore (NUS) Associate Professor Ian Chong noted that the major global powers are today paying less heed to international rules, laws and norms that were established after World War II and the Cold War.
China may "find some respite" from the US "running roughshod over international laws and norms", he told AsiaOne, adding that US claims about the rules-based international order will "ring even more hollow".
Beijing can "step into the breach and offer its own interpretation of rules," added Assoc Prof Chong, who is with NUS' political science department.
While the US intervention in Venezuela may make China's efforts to intervene in Taiwan and elsewhere — or even rendition and kidnap dissidents, including Taiwanese political leaders — seem acceptable, Assoc Prof Chong said that "this seems less likely a possibility at this point".
Similarly, Dr Alan Chong, senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), told AsiaOne that he does not think that Chinese President Xi Jinping will want to follow in the US' footsteps with regard to a military intervention anytime soon.
"I think it would be damaging, extremely damaging for Chinese image. And you realise that there is a lot to gain... for China to act with restraint when the US and Russia are acting without restraint. So China appears to benefit by default, appearing as the more benign superpower," he said.
Dr Chong also noted that China has greater justification for interfering in Taiwan, viewing disputes over the island as "an unfinished civil war from 1949".
He also explained that China's military exercises around Taiwan in late December, dubbed "Justice Mission 2025", have sent a strong signal to Taiwan President William Lai not to "push things further".
In a Facebook post on Jan 5, former permanent secretary at Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Bilahari Kausikan described arguments that the US attack on Venezuela sets a precedent for the Chinese to attack Taiwan as "extremely simplistic" at best.
"I doubt that anyone truly knowledgeable about geopolitics takes this argument seriously," he said.
In a statement on Jan 4, a MFA spokesperson said that Singapore is "gravely concerned" by the situation, urged both the US and Venezuela to "exercise restraint", and expressed hope for a peaceful resolution.
"Singapore is deeply committed to international law and the principles of the UN Charter that safeguard the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, especially small states.
"Singapore has consistently opposed actions contrary to international law by any parties, including foreign military intervention in any country," the spokesperson added.
Meanwhile, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Jan 8 said that while the US action is a "spectacular military success", the longer-term consequences on the rules-based international order is "something which we have to worry about".
"From the point of view of a small country, if that is the way the world works, we have a problem," he added.
The political analysts AsiaOne spoke to noted that the Republic cannot remain silent on the issue, lest it be seen as condoning such military action by a stronger power.
"Hence, as a matter of principle and self-preservation, it needs to call out, if not condemn, the invasion," said NUS' Assoc Prof Tan.
RSIS' Dr Chong also noted that "Singapore has consistently condemned all great power unilateral attempts to invade a neighbour's territory."
And he pointed out that that remaining neutral amid great power rivalry is imperative for Singapore.
"You cannot take sides when it comes to great powers. You need to keep (relations) warm but fluid… Singapore needs to, for lack of a better word, hedge itself by trying to look friendly towards US while disagreeing with some of the Trump presidency's actions," he added.
Dr Chong also explained that foreign policy is a matter of balancing competing interests, and that diplomatic ambiguity is a strategic choice which accords states with room to manoeuvre.
Similarly, NUS' Assoc Prof Chong described the MFA statement on Jan 4 as "an effort to square the circle under the circumstances".
"It obviously cannot accept a precedent of intervention into domestic politics, including the kidnapping of sitting leaders. Yet, outright criticism of Washington could be risky," he said, adding that a test would be if the issue were to come to a UN General Assembly vote.
However, Assoc Prof Chong noted that neutrality may be increasingly risky.
He cited the multipolarity of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, where major powers carved up spheres of influence and left little agency for middle and smaller powers.
"In a world where force is more the prevailing currency and major power rivalry is more intense, there may be less tolerance for smaller and medium sized states wavering. They may even be punished for insufficient support by one or multiple major powers simultaneously," he added.
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khooyihang@asiaone.com